{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e7ecd59-43be-4ce5-957a-3a6b998ed6ba", "symbol": "CNZN-M", "name": "CANZON ISRAEL LTD", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 50.192, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.545, "architecture_energy": 52.188, "architecture_maturity": 31.383, "architecture_confidence": 54.844, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.54, "rotation_up": 21.5, "upward_expansion": 19.78, "deceleration": 44.57, "rotation_down": 56.38, "downward_expansion": 56.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.5056, 1.523527, 1.580181, 1.587677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.494, "trend_reference": 1.571933, "distance_from_trend": -0.049578, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.588295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059369, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.323047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.004, "excess_performance": -0.0329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049578, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112007, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059369, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257667, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05323, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257274, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.013893, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049737, "annualized_volatility": 0.584846, "from_high_reference": -0.317808, "from_low_reference": 1.766667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.571933, "fair_value_reference": 1.588295, "structural_low": 1.35, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.024805, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016446, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.042155, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.029531, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.081735, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029531, "worst_return": 0.029531, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.249549, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.249307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.249549, "worst_return": -0.249549, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.654869, 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"2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.268055, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169039, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.159286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.122037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097938, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188605, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"fair_value": 1.623429, "relative_strength": 1.658425, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.02659, "energy": 15.606151, "activity_lines": [ 1.552, 1.572036, 1.623638, 1.602387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.552, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 6735.2, "trend": 1.557967, "fair_value": 1.614878, "relative_strength": -0.627101, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.5811, "energy": 14.369816, "activity_lines": [ 1.552, 1.557418, 1.617067, 1.603563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.494, "volume": 371, "typical_volume": 6743.75, "trend": 1.580233, "fair_value": 1.608327, "relative_strength": -6.977739, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.641264, "energy": 21.552308, "activity_lines": [ 1.532667, 1.541455, 1.604733, 1.599437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.494, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6743.75, "trend": 1.590033, "fair_value": 1.598917, "relative_strength": -4.793111, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.914322, "energy": 29.968213, "activity_lines": [ 1.5172, 1.531964, 1.592438, 1.593873 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.494, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6693.8, "trend": 1.571933, "fair_value": 1.588295, "relative_strength": -5.323047, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.545154, "energy": 52.187841, "activity_lines": [ 1.5056, 1.523527, 1.580181, 1.587677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }