{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e84fd39-01e9-4901-a9d5-52c57e915093", "symbol": "002716", "name": "Hunan Silver Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.7, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.092, "architecture_energy": 53.079, "architecture_maturity": 51.833, "architecture_confidence": 84.802, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.16, "rotation_up": 26.41, "upward_expansion": 9.0, "deceleration": 59.82, "rotation_down": 52.24, "downward_expansion": 82.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.052667, 8.098182, 8.961429, 9.937269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.09, "trend_reference": 11.127, "distance_from_trend": -0.183068, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.241538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.734224, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.918847, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.522584, "excess_performance": -0.529984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183068, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059109, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.734224, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.930216, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019188, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.38173, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.522584, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.766636, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 881075330, "relative_activity": 1.480189, "balance": 0.766636, "dry_up": 1.16219, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125666, "annualized_volatility": 0.776807, "from_high_reference": -0.573239, "from_low_reference": 1.029018 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.127, "fair_value_reference": 5.241538, "structural_low": 6.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.007119, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.012646, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.227451, "worst_return": -0.161512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.038884, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.084215, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.273973, "worst_return": -0.109635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.134328, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.093509, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.294521, "worst_return": -0.165109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 6.91, "volume": 434926942, "typical_volume": 635667927.05, "trend": 10.982667, "fair_value": 5.141154, "relative_strength": -21.018651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.345076, "energy": 89.252718, "activity_lines": [ 7.79, 8.366, 9.587095, 10.502559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.21, "volume": 751415728, "typical_volume": 597008572.7, "trend": 11.014667, "fair_value": 5.169423, "relative_strength": -18.235121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.463595, "energy": 81.523195, "activity_lines": [ 7.494667, 8.056364, 9.261, 10.259161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.99, "volume": 699732388, "typical_volume": 588894297.95, "trend": 11.054667, "fair_value": 5.202051, "relative_strength": -8.521683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.306839, "energy": 64.045657, "activity_lines": [ 7.588, 7.957455, 9.045667, 10.064022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.09, "volume": 881075330, "typical_volume": 595244995.8, "trend": 11.127, "fair_value": 5.241538, "relative_strength": -1.918847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.09181, "energy": 53.07921, "activity_lines": [ 8.052667, 8.098182, 8.961429, 9.937269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }