{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e899f95-d6c8-4587-a0fc-6cdae549bf6d", "symbol": "VTWG", "name": "VANGUARD RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH INDEX FUND ETF SHARES", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.897, "architecture_energy": 30.075, "architecture_maturity": 60.216, "architecture_confidence": 84.793, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.07, "rotation_up": 32.98, "upward_expansion": 58.93, "deceleration": 87.98, "rotation_down": 27.24, "downward_expansion": 20.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 276.51424, 277.784775, 274.322251, 266.869888 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 284.6375, "trend_reference": 258.743984, "distance_from_trend": 0.100074, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 209.666767, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.357571, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.703073, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.150714, "excess_performance": -0.03674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100074, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054924, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.357571, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017833, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007031, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032846, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150714, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.147306, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 166084, "relative_activity": 1.621863, "balance": 1.147306, "dry_up": 1.05579, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039727, "annualized_volatility": 0.197264, "from_high_reference": -0.015572, "from_low_reference": 0.349437 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 258.743984, "fair_value_reference": 209.666767, "structural_low": 218.513843, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.01517, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.018428, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.044101, "worst_return": -0.083021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.067201, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.0532, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.137446, "worst_return": -0.211685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.121149, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.04041, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.165057, "worst_return": -0.005457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015892, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024463, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.060287, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013638, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022898, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", 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"typical_volume": 102403.2, "trend": 258.743984, "fair_value": 209.666767, "relative_strength": 0.703073, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.897039, "energy": 30.075362, "activity_lines": [ 276.51424, 277.784775, 274.322251, 266.869888 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }