{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e8d95a3-34a9-4859-a816-2169f7f88cb8", "symbol": "IRON", "name": "Disc Medicine Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.971, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.744, "architecture_energy": 42.279, "architecture_maturity": 15.973, "architecture_confidence": 76.695, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.77, "rotation_up": 59.01, "upward_expansion": 80.93, "deceleration": 56.21, "rotation_down": 18.62, "downward_expansion": 5.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.43, 75.431273, 72.675714, 70.644258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 77.44, "trend_reference": 69.212333, "distance_from_trend": 0.118876, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 58.634968, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.320714, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.526358, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.0286, "excess_performance": -0.216054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118876, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056504, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.320714, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109468, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065264, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092019, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0286, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.990212, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1577863, "relative_activity": 0.650258, "balance": 1.990212, "dry_up": 0.721841, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077479, "annualized_volatility": 0.595555, "from_high_reference": -0.221709, "from_low_reference": 0.935995 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.212333, "fair_value_reference": 58.634968, "structural_low": 40.0001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.071123, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.010476, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.612973, "worst_return": -0.173394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.194353, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.098076, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.566112, "worst_return": -0.400827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.085845, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.086172, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.856364, "worst_return": -0.358794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 73.051333, 70.891091, 68.773095, 68.485935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 76.59, "volume": 3401684, "typical_volume": 2758138.85, "trend": 69.642, "fair_value": 57.932596, "relative_strength": -7.590474, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.169863, "energy": 60.141123, "activity_lines": [ 74.793333, 72.175818, 69.711095, 68.901376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 76.15, "volume": 1878571, "typical_volume": 2660983.7, "trend": 69.512333, "fair_value": 58.127083, "relative_strength": -4.233546, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.554565, "energy": 60.867789, "activity_lines": [ 75.749333, 73.204545, 70.534667, 69.321247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 74.12, "volume": 1648645, "typical_volume": 2583256.95, "trend": 69.305333, "fair_value": 58.291699, "relative_strength": -5.288916, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.905529, "energy": 62.221772, "activity_lines": [ 75.484667, 73.720727, 71.119524, 69.618516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.0, "volume": 1901170, "typical_volume": 2543762.45, "trend": 69.235667, "fair_value": 58.477788, "relative_strength": -2.22975, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.055593, "energy": 51.440839, "activity_lines": [ 75.958, 74.628545, 71.917048, 70.114946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.44, "volume": 1577863, "typical_volume": 2426520.15, "trend": 69.212333, "fair_value": 58.634968, "relative_strength": -6.526358, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.743664, "energy": 42.2791, "activity_lines": [ 76.43, 75.431273, 72.675714, 70.644258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }