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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.107, "architecture_energy": 48.351, "architecture_maturity": 10.313, "architecture_confidence": 74.947, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.26, "rotation_up": 61.77, "upward_expansion": 83.79, "deceleration": 48.24, "rotation_down": 15.94, "downward_expansion": 8.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.692, 30.673891, 30.61583, 30.600125 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.709999, "trend_reference": 30.590479, "distance_from_trend": 0.003907, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.480462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.078283, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.486393, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.001955, "excess_performance": -0.118466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003907, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002827, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.078283, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010369, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104864, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002112, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001955, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.973684, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9400, "relative_activity": 0.509347, "balance": 1.973684, "dry_up": 1.118938, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003724, "annualized_volatility": 0.023588, "from_high_reference": -0.008915, "from_low_reference": 0.031129 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.590479, "fair_value_reference": 28.480462, "structural_low": 30.278131, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0075, "positive_rate": 0.90625, "directional_follow_through": 0.90625, "median_excess_return": -0.012001, "regime_survival": 0.9375, "best_return": 0.02094, "worst_return": -0.008044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.020214, "positive_rate": 0.9, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": -0.025958, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.050135, "worst_return": -0.010813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038166, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.054851, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.09222, "worst_return": 0.001926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.328108, "energy": 45.554655, "activity_lines": [ 30.632268, 30.571259, 30.556279, 30.560648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.68, "volume": 24700, "typical_volume": 18380.0, "trend": 30.557245, "fair_value": 28.32287, "relative_strength": -9.483553, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.683824, "energy": 53.017574, "activity_lines": [ 30.656371, 30.600702, 30.567345, 30.569197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.68, "volume": 17500, "typical_volume": 18140.0, "trend": 30.565851, "fair_value": 28.362595, "relative_strength": -8.989785, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.533287, "energy": 54.978741, "activity_lines": [ 30.670163, 30.624636, 30.578693, 30.577116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.690001, "volume": 33900, "typical_volume": 18945.0, "trend": 30.573972, "fair_value": 28.401978, "relative_strength": -8.8428, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.327076, "energy": 51.562951, "activity_lines": [ 30.680934, 30.646139, 30.591227, 30.585126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.68, "volume": 21800, "typical_volume": 19285.0, "trend": 30.583538, "fair_value": 28.441182, "relative_strength": -8.07302, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.515727, "energy": 50.58967, "activity_lines": [ 30.682667, 30.659772, 30.602477, 30.591967 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.709999, "volume": 9400, "typical_volume": 18455.0, "trend": 30.590479, "fair_value": 28.480462, "relative_strength": -10.486393, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.106576, "energy": 48.350738, "activity_lines": [ 30.692, 30.673891, 30.61583, 30.600125 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }