{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e946b57-5d57-4773-ad7c-c1abecfdf97f", "symbol": "FCF", "name": "First Commonwealth Financial", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.129, "architecture_energy": 69.079, "architecture_maturity": 71.759, "architecture_confidence": 77.869, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 74.96, "upward_expansion": 87.93, "deceleration": 51.88, "rotation_down": 13.9, "downward_expansion": 12.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.162926, 20.775677, 20.005818, 19.420898 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.51, "trend_reference": 18.753483, "distance_from_trend": 0.146987, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.44745, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.392463, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.045231, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.150943, "excess_performance": 0.025318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.146987, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077516, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.392463, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138269, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.080452, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092625, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150943, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.968304, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4658412, "relative_activity": 1.265822, "balance": 1.968304, "dry_up": 1.248623, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040181, "annualized_volatility": 0.184454, "from_high_reference": -0.030995, "from_low_reference": 0.467648 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.753483, "fair_value_reference": 15.44745, "structural_low": 16.207743, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.000319, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012866, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.163994, "worst_return": -0.157534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.029903, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030882, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.141297, "worst_return": -0.21634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.023298, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033904, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.203918, "worst_return": -0.135655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 66.382373, "energy": 78.050176, "activity_lines": [ 20.180299, 19.760484, 19.113788, 18.705843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.983427, "volume": 3792913, "typical_volume": 3975667.3, "trend": 18.311821, "fair_value": 15.287763, "relative_strength": 10.361326, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.716204, "energy": 85.325524, "activity_lines": [ 20.477013, 20.053172, 19.347531, 18.886752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.735044, "volume": 4332044, "typical_volume": 3967653.8, "trend": 18.441284, "fair_value": 15.336537, "relative_strength": 9.448188, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.849783, "energy": 71.973842, "activity_lines": [ 20.619371, 20.256637, 19.540549, 19.043089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.390776, "volume": 5597095, "typical_volume": 3970825.2, "trend": 18.603444, "fair_value": 15.391056, "relative_strength": 11.442615, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.608106, "energy": 68.879915, "activity_lines": [ 20.89997, 20.530689, 19.778665, 19.233379 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.51, "volume": 4658412, "typical_volume": 3680147.65, "trend": 18.753483, "fair_value": 15.44745, "relative_strength": 8.045231, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.129222, "energy": 69.078951, "activity_lines": [ 21.162926, 20.775677, 20.005818, 19.420898 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }