{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ea23adc-fa37-4d11-b17a-529084be5e1b", "symbol": "603829", "name": "Jiangsu Luokai Mechanical &Electrical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.929, "architecture_energy": 82.835, "architecture_maturity": 36.859, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.68, "rotation_up": 19.7, "upward_expansion": 19.75, "deceleration": 38.58, "rotation_down": 68.79, "downward_expansion": 95.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.184667, 15.185062, 18.865177, 21.137045 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.79, "trend_reference": 23.326362, "distance_from_trend": -0.365953, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.987685, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.129369, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.061481, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.418175, "excess_performance": -0.374971, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.365953, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113246, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.129369, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.895584, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.350615, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.553857, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.418175, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.223949, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17277221, "relative_activity": 0.760047, "balance": 0.223949, "dry_up": 0.876707, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151288, "annualized_volatility": 0.502589, "from_high_reference": -0.565, "from_low_reference": 0.172879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.326362, "fair_value_reference": 16.987685, "structural_low": 12.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.021995, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.013193, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.15942, "worst_return": -0.225633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.229437, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.058994, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.264731, "worst_return": -0.107153, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.18702, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.036334, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.286739, "worst_return": 0.084698, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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20.212777, 23.53015, 24.447592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.29, "volume": 16865700, "typical_volume": 26639305.1, "trend": 25.106696, "fair_value": 17.027839, "relative_strength": -34.960102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.893649, "energy": 92.445515, "activity_lines": [ 16.718501, 18.892943, 22.587527, 23.784579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.05, "volume": 20887182, "typical_volume": 25859791.55, "trend": 24.469696, "fair_value": 17.016281, "relative_strength": -36.256154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.508587, "energy": 92.894283, "activity_lines": [ 15.632616, 17.590564, 21.570094, 23.071244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.25, "volume": 24548338, "typical_volume": 25570864.85, "trend": 23.896029, "fair_value": 17.000913, "relative_strength": -40.387389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.636058, "energy": 91.773589, "activity_lines": [ 14.630898, 16.422366, 20.536804, 22.347393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.92, "volume": 17003717, "typical_volume": 23686507.1, "trend": 23.574362, "fair_value": 16.987441, "relative_strength": -37.40803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.371295, "energy": 88.183378, "activity_lines": [ 14.178769, 15.62035, 19.624609, 21.703778 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.79, "volume": 17277221, "typical_volume": 22731794.35, "trend": 23.326362, "fair_value": 16.987685, "relative_strength": -35.061481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.929005, "energy": 82.834565, "activity_lines": [ 14.184667, 15.185062, 18.865177, 21.137045 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }