{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4eade929-5286-447a-92c4-36a2de138dcd", "symbol": "BRAIN", "name": "BrainCool AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.125, "architecture_energy": 12.85, "architecture_maturity": 23.022, "architecture_confidence": 72.581, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.5, "rotation_up": 28.56, "upward_expansion": 49.97, "deceleration": 78.79, "rotation_down": 23.01, "downward_expansion": 23.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.756467, 0.760782, 0.761571, 0.728409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.76, "trend_reference": 0.6735, "distance_from_trend": 0.128434, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.017621, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.623319, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.825557, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.688889, "excess_performance": 0.627395, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.128434, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101182, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.623319, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046653, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048256, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.236142, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.688889, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.302948, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 797413, "relative_activity": 0.244736, "balance": 1.302948, "dry_up": 0.390844, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103138, "annualized_volatility": 0.50383, "from_high_reference": -0.541616, "from_low_reference": 0.851401 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.6735, "fair_value_reference": 2.017621, "structural_low": 0.4105, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.010606, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.001795, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.472696, "worst_return": -0.071739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.058575, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022732, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.262799, "worst_return": -0.59087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.274647, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.254038, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.115861, "worst_return": -0.508696, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.359251, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127083, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.147287, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.581989, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.319113, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": 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57.308375, "energy": 33.385864, "activity_lines": [ 0.777467, 0.769582, 0.749886, 0.704677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.778, "volume": 1115969, "typical_volume": 3404377.1, "trend": 0.660033, "fair_value": 2.101672, "relative_strength": -5.654396, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.961308, "energy": 34.690479, "activity_lines": [ 0.7834, 0.771764, 0.756624, 0.712714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.73, "volume": 1869208, "typical_volume": 3438236.8, "trend": 0.664867, "fair_value": 2.070839, "relative_strength": -10.499882, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.134965, "energy": 32.053675, "activity_lines": [ 0.769933, 0.764527, 0.75769, 0.717228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.748, "volume": 1311298, "typical_volume": 3452608.55, "trend": 0.669833, "fair_value": 2.045441, "relative_strength": -6.980215, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.266219, "energy": 24.800466, "activity_lines": [ 0.761467, 0.760945, 0.759562, 0.722591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.76, "volume": 797413, "typical_volume": 3258263.85, "trend": 0.6735, "fair_value": 2.017621, "relative_strength": -4.825557, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.125234, "energy": 12.849734, "activity_lines": [ 0.756467, 0.760782, 0.761571, 0.728409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }