{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4eadfd76-fa18-4d5c-b411-d273eb29b133", "symbol": "SONYN", "name": "Sony Group Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.791, "architecture_energy": 28.955, "architecture_maturity": 8.287, "architecture_confidence": 54.819, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.26, "rotation_up": 57.9, "upward_expansion": 38.25, "deceleration": 35.58, "rotation_down": 17.46, "downward_expansion": 17.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 385.281333, 374.997817, 371.341287, 371.90671 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 395.0, "trend_reference": 376.015217, "distance_from_trend": 0.050489, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 857.393978, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.539302, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.956329, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.026199, "excess_performance": 0.080866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050489, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100846, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.539302, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087865, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119563, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190113, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026199, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.008319, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 165, "relative_activity": 0.089252, "balance": 5.008319, "dry_up": 0.155379, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053788, "annualized_volatility": 0.319755, "from_high_reference": -0.318816, "from_low_reference": 0.161765 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 376.015217, "fair_value_reference": 857.393978, "structural_low": 340.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.070024, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.01923, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.10262, "worst_return": 0.002666, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.027851, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.056556, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.168294, "worst_return": -0.024266, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.024234, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.11031, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.139945, "worst_return": -0.091477, "sufficient": false 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012935, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024017, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035807, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119229, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092188, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.093589, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017413, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1426.122803, "volume": 33, "typical_volume": 557.45, "trend": 1613.802649, "fair_value": 1877.334218, "relative_strength": -10.860436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": 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"energy": 37.516044, "activity_lines": [ 359.25733, 363.897088, 365.747407, 371.744726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 370.01001, "volume": 376, "typical_volume": 1982.8, "trend": 383.529085, "fair_value": 879.446799, "relative_strength": -18.921482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.209952, "energy": 26.570397, "activity_lines": [ 363.634668, 364.405999, 365.839855, 370.683496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 363.399994, "volume": 131, "typical_volume": 1841.9, "trend": 380.003848, "fair_value": 871.669554, "relative_strength": -19.44729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.662247, "energy": 16.23177, "activity_lines": [ 364.801333, 363.494725, 365.407083, 369.384845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 402.0, "volume": 477, "typical_volume": 1859.75, "trend": 377.907247, "fair_value": 864.139745, "relative_strength": -11.106057, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.131308, "energy": 23.891779, "activity_lines": [ 378.274666, 370.055271, 368.745815, 370.803952 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 395.0, "volume": 165, "typical_volume": 1848.7, "trend": 376.015217, "fair_value": 857.393978, "relative_strength": -11.956329, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.790533, "energy": 28.954966, "activity_lines": [ 385.281333, 374.997817, 371.341287, 371.90671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }