{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4eb18e34-eef8-41ff-ae06-aa2eca23ec7b", "symbol": "XDG3", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Global SDG 3 Good Health UCITS ETF 1C USD", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.921, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.144, "architecture_energy": 57.9, "architecture_maturity": 18.842, "architecture_confidence": 52.493, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.96, "rotation_up": 73.58, "upward_expansion": 84.04, "deceleration": 54.13, "rotation_down": 12.03, "downward_expansion": 8.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.870667, 32.550727, 31.610428, 31.387978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 33.165001, "trend_reference": 31.386167, "distance_from_trend": 0.056676, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.865385, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074505, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.065271, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024243, "excess_performance": -0.146648, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056676, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000552, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074505, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126352, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090653, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078406, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024243, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.501559, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2241, "relative_activity": 1.098853, "balance": 0.501559, "dry_up": 0.913381, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029132, "annualized_volatility": 0.159617, "from_high_reference": -0.025276, "from_low_reference": 0.155374 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.386167, "fair_value_reference": 30.865385, "structural_low": 28.735001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.005589, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01974, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.01261, "worst_return": -0.023788, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.112424, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.182939, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.112424, "worst_return": -0.112424, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.110455, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.233578, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.110455, "worst_return": -0.110455, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01476, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018438, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002864, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041082, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029561, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048358, "active": false 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"stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.886445, "energy": 74.103643, "activity_lines": [ 32.821999, 32.112272, 31.235881, 31.198795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.525002, "volume": 2470, "typical_volume": 1978.3, "trend": 31.387167, "fair_value": 30.827404, "relative_strength": -8.365238, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.305993, "energy": 56.94247, "activity_lines": [ 32.74, 32.295272, 31.395857, 31.273279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.165001, "volume": 2241, "typical_volume": 2039.4, "trend": 31.386167, "fair_value": 30.865385, "relative_strength": -9.065271, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.143655, "energy": 57.899619, "activity_lines": [ 32.870667, 32.550727, 31.610428, 31.387978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }