{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ebb0c00-06ca-4656-b8e6-ab6b48903ce0", "symbol": "ALNEV", "name": "Neovacs S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.879, "architecture_energy": 67.754, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.777, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.22, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.1, "rotation_down": 58.82, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.957333, 1.144909, 1.634429, 3.654817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.24, "trend_reference": 8.9542, "distance_from_trend": -0.861518, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1682598.491192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.999999, "fair_value_direction": "Stable", "relative_strength": -99.86407, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.9504, "excess_performance": -1.003711, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.861518, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.856809, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.999999, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.998641, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001146, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.9504, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.024078, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 170379, "relative_activity": 5.605264, "balance": 1.024078, "dry_up": 2.292585, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.760533, "annualized_volatility": 1.617939, "from_high_reference": -0.999874, "from_low_reference": 0.823529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.9542, "fair_value_reference": 1682598.491192, "structural_low": 0.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.393939, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.734694, "median_excess_return": -0.414843, "regime_survival": 0.918367, "best_return": 7999.0, "worst_return": -0.93133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.696076, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.730561, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1865.666667, "worst_return": -0.966102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 30.692766, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 30.648215, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 219.0, "worst_return": -0.996919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.741417, "energy": 69.472242, "activity_lines": [ 1.002133, 1.332945, 2.008914, 5.175123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.73, "volume": 28042, "typical_volume": 22345.8, "trend": 11.312867, "fair_value": 1752406.175551, "relative_strength": -99.930845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.805947, "energy": 69.830965, "activity_lines": [ 0.8684, 1.181018, 1.775314, 4.30468 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.24, "volume": 170379, "typical_volume": 30396.25, "trend": 8.9542, "fair_value": 1682598.491192, "relative_strength": -99.86407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.879053, "energy": 67.753985, "activity_lines": [ 0.957333, 1.144909, 1.634429, 3.654817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }