{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ec6f93c-f5b6-483c-9910-08a88243da3b", "symbol": "CPER", "name": "Leverage Shares Copper ETC", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.142, "architecture_energy": 68.012, "architecture_maturity": 8.653, "architecture_confidence": 83.52, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.3, "rotation_up": 62.62, "upward_expansion": 84.41, "deceleration": 51.9, "rotation_down": 17.55, "downward_expansion": 13.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.969001, 26.674637, 26.334786, 25.84128 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.405001, "trend_reference": 25.300833, "distance_from_trend": 0.083166, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.23003, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.232792, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.496025, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125462, "excess_performance": -0.04543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083166, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053506, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.232792, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04464, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00496, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017549, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125462, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.677817, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3751, "relative_activity": 3.790037, "balance": 11.677817, "dry_up": 1.215267, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027465, "annualized_volatility": 0.178429, "from_high_reference": -0.025773, "from_low_reference": 0.445717 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.300833, "fair_value_reference": 22.23003, "structural_low": 22.275, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.03095, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.042214, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.082363, "worst_return": -0.02536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.062621, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.015257, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.134669, "worst_return": 0.059138, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.201771, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.053302, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.201771, "worst_return": 0.201771, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 831.3, "trend": 25.2195, "fair_value": 22.186175, "relative_strength": 1.385902, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.630314, "energy": 50.202513, "activity_lines": [ 26.654, 26.503182, 26.158976, 25.70028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.405001, "volume": 3751, "typical_volume": 989.7, "trend": 25.300833, "fair_value": 22.23003, "relative_strength": -0.496025, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.141931, "energy": 68.012179, "activity_lines": [ 26.969001, 26.674637, 26.334786, 25.84128 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }