{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ec72ab2-fab6-4396-ba1c-8a09c69a6918", "symbol": "002905", "name": "Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.251, "architecture_energy": 43.606, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.34, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.63, "rotation_up": 27.0, "upward_expansion": 18.94, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 40.03, "downward_expansion": 66.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.336667, 7.291818, 7.773286, 8.394194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.55, "trend_reference": 9.299333, "distance_from_trend": -0.188114, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.890577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.150786, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.039396, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.378601, "excess_performance": -0.386001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.188114, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116397, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.150786, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172153, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.270394, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006145, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.378601, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.425153, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21933540, "relative_activity": 0.700778, "balance": 0.425153, "dry_up": 1.003691, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094345, "annualized_volatility": 0.401836, "from_high_reference": -0.51101, "from_low_reference": 0.113569 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.299333, "fair_value_reference": 8.890577, "structural_low": 6.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.030872, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.044176, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.161787, "worst_return": -0.210221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.091522, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.223735, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.061972, "worst_return": -0.217865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.124274, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.120696, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.139296, "worst_return": -0.175333, "sufficient": false 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.262394, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132911, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006757, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218097, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.168478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.474915, "energy": 84.092982, "activity_lines": [ 7.235333, 7.539636, 8.304143, 8.987118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.39, "volume": 49533460, "typical_volume": 32903564.2, "trend": 9.649, "fair_value": 8.96859, "relative_strength": -27.469622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.862207, "energy": 68.000057, "activity_lines": [ 7.284, 7.446182, 8.157286, 8.834366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.87, "volume": 30123008, "typical_volume": 32084648.6, "trend": 9.529333, "fair_value": 8.944744, "relative_strength": -32.30549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.552366, "energy": 62.734306, "activity_lines": [ 7.168, 7.292909, 7.977286, 8.655075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.36, "volume": 24067560, "typical_volume": 31838240.0, "trend": 9.424333, "fair_value": 8.918846, "relative_strength": -25.827301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.311785, "energy": 52.189787, "activity_lines": [ 7.238, 7.264, 7.86019, 8.515118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.55, "volume": 21933540, "typical_volume": 31298864.0, "trend": 9.299333, "fair_value": 8.890577, "relative_strength": -27.039396, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.251038, "energy": 43.606061, "activity_lines": [ 7.336667, 7.291818, 7.773286, 8.394194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }