{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ec774b7-bdbd-476e-b56d-915d2b8eb39a", "symbol": "000029", "name": "Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate & Properties (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.875, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.337, "architecture_energy": 25.57, "architecture_maturity": 8.517, "architecture_confidence": 62.594, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.66, "rotation_up": 15.65, "upward_expansion": 15.8, "deceleration": 59.34, "rotation_down": 62.05, "downward_expansion": 45.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.949333, 21.984693, 22.797768, 22.533662 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.139999, "trend_reference": 22.283939, "distance_from_trend": -0.006459, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.051655, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.298408, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.386422, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.002717, "excess_performance": -0.004682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006459, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025661, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.298408, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066791, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113864, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107906, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002717, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.784311, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24458513, "relative_activity": 0.781251, "balance": 0.784311, "dry_up": 1.003884, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167289, "annualized_volatility": 0.66745, "from_high_reference": -0.348824, "from_low_reference": 0.250847 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.283939, "fair_value_reference": 17.051655, "structural_low": 17.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.008481, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.008873, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.238243, "worst_return": -0.079301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.001188, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.07206, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.423923, "worst_return": -0.064516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.072581, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.127458, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.238667, "worst_return": -0.076531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.367684, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.539882, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.758232, "worst_return": -0.081746, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055409, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030554, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024637, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.178445, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065744, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093946, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.19202, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176678, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053173, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.01087, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012467, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030848, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048295, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 11.91, "volume": 33835894, "typical_volume": 21353730.5, "trend": 11.851409, "fair_value": 9.18933, "relative_strength": 10.421705, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after 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25.357802, 25.083609, 23.492097, 22.985918 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 22.68, "volume": 8415400, "typical_volume": 30814265.7, "trend": 22.610606, "fair_value": 16.729281, "relative_strength": -17.895373, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.689736, "energy": 24.775113, "activity_lines": [ 24.541207, 24.785131, 23.4952, 22.986374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.620001, "volume": 32405242, "typical_volume": 30147007.95, "trend": 22.589272, "fair_value": 16.803963, "relative_strength": -14.853304, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.763364, "energy": 15.811069, "activity_lines": [ 23.840334, 24.429601, 23.489828, 22.98698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.120001, "volume": 35180808, "typical_volume": 30558643.8, "trend": 22.516606, "fair_value": 16.870052, "relative_strength": -12.44089, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.186191, "energy": 17.278523, "activity_lines": [ 22.668667, 23.776082, 23.344266, 22.892188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.24, "volume": 29448568, "typical_volume": 30436990.35, "trend": 22.380606, "fair_value": 16.923193, "relative_strength": -20.335965, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.050323, "energy": 28.886265, "activity_lines": [ 21.149334, 22.794195, 23.029608, 22.680794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.24, "volume": 36625899, "typical_volume": 31168493.6, "trend": 22.279939, "fair_value": 16.982424, "relative_strength": -14.776955, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.655747, "energy": 29.933922, "activity_lines": [ 20.629334, 22.169219, 22.822283, 22.542691 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.139999, "volume": 24458513, "typical_volume": 31306857.25, "trend": 22.283939, "fair_value": 17.051655, "relative_strength": -11.386422, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.336848, "energy": 25.570273, "activity_lines": [ 20.949333, 21.984693, 22.797768, 22.533662 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }