{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4eca0d2b-6ecb-45fe-9451-c6f11e4aeba7", "symbol": "600368", "name": "Guangxi Wuzhou Communications Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.372, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.019, "architecture_energy": 35.669, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.059, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.87, "rotation_up": 68.55, "upward_expansion": 43.37, "deceleration": 41.54, "rotation_down": 14.07, "downward_expansion": 16.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.844667, 3.717343, 3.710107, 3.757593 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.93, "trend_reference": 3.826794, "distance_from_trend": 0.026969, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.70406, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.060998, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.804134, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.024814, "excess_performance": 0.01839, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026969, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035324, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.060998, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028193, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008041, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125118, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024814, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.823638, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101495465, "relative_activity": 1.815362, "balance": 1.823638, "dry_up": 1.579379, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046219, "annualized_volatility": 0.230577, "from_high_reference": -0.16383, "from_low_reference": 0.186241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.826794, "fair_value_reference": 3.70406, "structural_low": 3.312986, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.002481, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.000219, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.125386, "worst_return": -0.114796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.012469, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.03689, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.036517, "worst_return": -0.105941, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.02985, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023955, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.154494, "worst_return": -0.094793, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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3.753639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.75, "volume": 84205991, "typical_volume": 56182161.85, "trend": 3.833461, "fair_value": 3.689069, "relative_strength": -3.018336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.940608, "energy": 21.147372, "activity_lines": [ 3.675479, 3.619084, 3.679286, 3.747911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.88, "volume": 57205610, "typical_volume": 54722781.8, "trend": 3.826461, "fair_value": 3.69659, "relative_strength": 0.28445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.459835, "energy": 20.726617, "activity_lines": [ 3.77, 3.664807, 3.691887, 3.750913 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.93, "volume": 101495465, "typical_volume": 55909208.75, "trend": 3.826794, "fair_value": 3.70406, "relative_strength": -0.804134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.019182, "energy": 35.668858, "activity_lines": [ 3.844667, 3.717343, 3.710107, 3.757593 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }