{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4eca63e0-729d-444e-9fbf-958e750ecb02", "symbol": "PVL", "name": "Powerhouse Ventures Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.345, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.517, "architecture_energy": 21.114, "architecture_maturity": 27.999, "architecture_confidence": 84.808, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.83, "rotation_up": 28.81, "upward_expansion": 58.65, "deceleration": 84.93, "rotation_down": 33.95, "downward_expansion": 19.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.141, 0.144182, 0.140738, 0.138194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.14, "trend_reference": 0.137917, "distance_from_trend": 0.015106, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.08741, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.601643, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.468946, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.034483, "excess_performance": -0.098188, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015106, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015961, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.601643, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035063, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014689, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043706, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034483, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.274832, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 356562, "relative_activity": 0.742323, "balance": 2.274832, "dry_up": 1.148293, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087912, "annualized_volatility": 0.471024, "from_high_reference": -0.176471, "from_low_reference": 0.647059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.137917, "fair_value_reference": 0.08741, "structural_low": 0.105, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.056604, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.065155, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.06, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.052415, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.608696, "worst_return": -0.150943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.068182, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.030074, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.325581, "worst_return": -0.432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.127883, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.086839, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.093023, "worst_return": -0.354545, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107527, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.141176, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030612, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137255, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { 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17.958043, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.826747, "energy": 49.797152, "activity_lines": [ 0.1505, 0.147, 0.138095, 0.137591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.155, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 399101.25, "trend": 0.139417, "fair_value": 0.085795, "relative_strength": 16.975767, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.598206, "energy": 60.337535, "activity_lines": [ 0.152667, 0.149136, 0.140036, 0.13864 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.13, "volume": 279864, "typical_volume": 412594.45, "trend": 0.138917, "fair_value": 0.086288, "relative_strength": -2.172311, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.617924, "energy": 13.864158, "activity_lines": [ 0.145833, 0.146182, 0.139571, 0.138032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.14, "volume": 1569826, "typical_volume": 475941.45, "trend": 0.138583, "fair_value": 0.086846, "relative_strength": 2.306763, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.94756, "energy": 9.782392, "activity_lines": [ 0.143, 0.145227, 0.140155, 0.138102 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.14, "volume": 356562, "typical_volume": 480332.8, "trend": 0.137917, "fair_value": 0.08741, "relative_strength": -1.468946, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.516639, "energy": 21.113547, "activity_lines": [ 0.141, 0.144182, 0.140738, 0.138194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }