{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ed25b70-8c1e-47fe-b940-fae8fe8f4b97", "symbol": "SWARAJENG", "name": "Swaraj Engines Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 59.119, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.893, "architecture_energy": 26.899, "architecture_maturity": 6.907, "architecture_confidence": 61.191, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.83, "rotation_up": 17.49, "upward_expansion": 17.57, "deceleration": 59.6, "rotation_down": 62.21, "downward_expansion": 42.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 3628.119954, 3695.564378, 3721.745426, 3704.572502 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3600.399902, "trend_reference": 3666.450578, "distance_from_trend": -0.018015, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3144.24414, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145076, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.305382, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014797, "excess_performance": 0.058507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018015, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002012, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145076, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156021, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043054, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083532, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014797, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.249295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30815, "relative_activity": 0.372726, "balance": 0.249295, "dry_up": 0.95857, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043811, "annualized_volatility": 0.257379, "from_high_reference": -0.207833, "from_low_reference": 0.090601 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3666.450578, "fair_value_reference": 3144.24414, "structural_low": 3301.300049, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.01589, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.011672, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.103465, "worst_return": -0.067685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.134263, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.055406, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.357757, "worst_return": -0.13452, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.136072, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.131858, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.513786, "worst_return": 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"trend": 3666.450578, "fair_value": 3144.24414, "relative_strength": -4.305382, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.892511, "energy": 26.899365, "activity_lines": [ 3628.119954, 3695.564378, 3721.745426, 3704.572502 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }