{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ed42b1c-a5f8-4077-be7a-7182e3604e3d", "symbol": "CORO", "name": "Coro Energy plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.872, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.68, "architecture_energy": 18.502, "architecture_maturity": 66.642, "architecture_confidence": 88.745, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.15, "rotation_up": 24.2, "upward_expansion": 5.69, "deceleration": 42.77, "rotation_down": 40.72, "downward_expansion": 72.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.035067, 0.035473, 0.035898, 0.036211 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.0335, "trend_reference": 0.036533, "distance_from_trend": -0.083029, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.770447, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.956519, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.316806, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.030769, "excess_performance": -0.020466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083029, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028799, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.956519, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004184, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213168, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117493, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030769, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.402942, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 269231, "relative_activity": 0.368968, "balance": 4.402942, "dry_up": 0.515542, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.281056, "annualized_volatility": 0.32603, "from_high_reference": -0.390909, "from_low_reference": 0.116667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.036533, "fair_value_reference": 0.770447, "structural_low": 0.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.027841, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.291667, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005346, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023315, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.268293, "worst_return": -0.3125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.0125, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.048171, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.097561, "worst_return": -0.386667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.304348, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.320433, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.078125, "worst_return": -0.904167, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2021-11-19", "end": "2022-01-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-01-21", "end": "2022-05-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.242424, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-05-20", "end": "2022-06-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037901, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-06-24", "end": "2022-07-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017241, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-07-22", "end": "2022-10-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.112903, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-10-28", "end": "2023-01-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.227119, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-01-27", "end": "2023-06-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.292683, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-08-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113208, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.287554, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.980488, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.1625, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.38, "volume": 14740, "typical_volume": 127684.95, "trend": 2.272, "fair_value": 3.093654, "relative_strength": -3.04805, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": 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0.80239, "relative_strength": -16.150721, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.084214, "energy": 5.707669, "activity_lines": [ 0.037033, 0.036282, 0.036517, 0.036644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0335, "volume": 589605, "typical_volume": 785306.55, "trend": 0.03675, "fair_value": 0.785938, "relative_strength": -22.008755, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.267919, "energy": 13.337052, "activity_lines": [ 0.036, 0.035864, 0.0362, 0.03642 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0335, "volume": 269231, "typical_volume": 729687.3, "trend": 0.036533, "fair_value": 0.770447, "relative_strength": -21.316806, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.679618, "energy": 18.501824, "activity_lines": [ 0.035067, 0.035473, 0.035898, 0.036211 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }