{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ed64759-e886-4af3-8a4a-92a0948e7ac3", "symbol": "CCK", "name": "Crown Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.475, "architecture_energy": 82.194, "architecture_maturity": 15.265, "architecture_confidence": 75.754, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.55, "rotation_up": 83.19, "upward_expansion": 96.22, "deceleration": 39.73, "rotation_down": 8.85, "downward_expansion": 18.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 118.067038, 114.418388, 108.353979, 106.8216 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 120.69, "trend_reference": 105.793079, "distance_from_trend": 0.140812, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 91.340684, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.321317, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.280632, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.076527, "excess_performance": -0.049098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.140812, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035762, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.321317, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193549, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.052806, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16391, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076527, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.732309, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4084231, "relative_activity": 0.753824, "balance": 1.732309, "dry_up": 1.042774, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053542, "annualized_volatility": 0.269602, "from_high_reference": -0.018062, "from_low_reference": 0.365849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 105.793079, "fair_value_reference": 91.340684, "structural_low": 91.31, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.025597, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.030846, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.071638, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.055017, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.07278, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.159269, "worst_return": -0.137062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003797, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.088418, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.114067, "worst_return": -0.260404, "sufficient": true }, { 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109.843955, 105.442925, 105.001789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 117.510375, "volume": 5387528, "typical_volume": 5493320.45, "trend": 105.23066, "fair_value": 91.119225, "relative_strength": 6.059244, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.275639, "energy": 80.655777, "activity_lines": [ 116.239381, 112.031209, 106.77813, 105.824223 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 120.69, "volume": 4084231, "typical_volume": 5418018.65, "trend": 105.793079, "fair_value": 91.340684, "relative_strength": 5.280632, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.474543, "energy": 82.194266, "activity_lines": [ 118.067038, 114.418388, 108.353979, 106.8216 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }