{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ee1ccc2-1be9-453e-85f6-4200de690d22", "symbol": "NORD3", "name": "Nordon Ind\u00fastrias Metal\u00fargicas S/A", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.987, "architecture_energy": 87.727, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.02, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.12, "rotation_up": 14.5, "upward_expansion": 19.99, "deceleration": 38.35, "rotation_down": 74.25, "downward_expansion": 93.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.623333, 1.798182, 1.892143, 2.202452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.42, "trend_reference": 2.756333, "distance_from_trend": -0.484823, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.080128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.766452, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -63.44435, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.741818, "excess_performance": -0.68477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.484823, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235555, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.766452, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114263, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.634443, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027732, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.741818, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.092188, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10600, "relative_activity": 0.675374, "balance": 0.092188, "dry_up": 0.680153, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.178223, "annualized_volatility": 1.053932, "from_high_reference": -0.750877, "from_low_reference": 0.083969 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.756333, "fair_value_reference": 6.080128, "structural_low": 1.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.036585, "positive_rate": 0.395349, "directional_follow_through": 0.604651, "median_excess_return": -0.009776, "regime_survival": 0.860465, "best_return": 3.845506, "worst_return": -0.474359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.098333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.125146, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.076316, "worst_return": -0.560976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.137113, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.180087, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.425819, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.250024, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.348289, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.089474, "worst_return": -0.551125, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127612, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.177148, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.135635, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153285, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.864407, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.199, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.24262, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001266, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.226804, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-23", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.84, "volume": 9000, "typical_volume": 14045.0, "trend": 3.004, "fair_value": 6.160256, "relative_strength": -56.781433, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.688865, "energy": 58.678576, "activity_lines": [ 1.993333, 1.987636, 2.064476, 2.457978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.96, "volume": 2200, "typical_volume": 14125.0, "trend": 2.932667, "fair_value": 6.135577, "relative_strength": -52.81674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.680359, "energy": 53.150345, "activity_lines": [ 1.958667, 1.987273, 2.029667, 2.390624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.44, "volume": 20900, "typical_volume": 15170.0, "trend": 2.844, "fair_value": 6.107564, "relative_strength": -65.077357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.233037, "energy": 79.398362, "activity_lines": [ 1.769333, 1.890364, 1.955524, 2.294323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.42, "volume": 10600, "typical_volume": 15695.0, "trend": 2.756333, "fair_value": 6.080128, "relative_strength": -63.44435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.986985, "energy": 87.726646, "activity_lines": [ 1.623333, 1.798182, 1.892143, 2.202452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }