{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ee9fddb-717d-4c3d-bb52-04bd15133d2c", "symbol": "LGOLD-B", "name": "Lappland Guldprospektering AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.784, "architecture_energy": 45.647, "architecture_maturity": 43.79, "architecture_confidence": 91.905, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.54, "rotation_up": 20.83, "upward_expansion": 5.78, "deceleration": 51.53, "rotation_down": 61.47, "downward_expansion": 83.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 154.04, 157.385454, 164.793334, 172.785162 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 153.0, "trend_reference": 188.040001, "distance_from_trend": -0.186343, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 146.838948, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041958, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.295489, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.313901, "excess_performance": -0.375396, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.186343, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061036, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041958, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199383, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232955, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.252091, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.313901, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.772111, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7746, "relative_activity": 1.1878, "balance": 0.772111, "dry_up": 0.737123, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115636, "annualized_volatility": 0.436931, "from_high_reference": -0.521127, "from_low_reference": 0.688742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 188.040001, "fair_value_reference": 146.838948, "structural_low": 140.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.051042, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.051223, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.028221, "worst_return": -0.073864, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044743, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130682, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 65.0, "volume": 15434, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 87.0, "volume": 57605, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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-62.147452, "energy": 54.62772, "activity_lines": [ 162.119999, 165.952727, 173.019049, 183.874195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 158.399994, "volume": 4012, "typical_volume": 9307.65, "trend": 200.370001, "fair_value": 146.631522, "relative_strength": -15.815504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.497767, "energy": 42.325544, "activity_lines": [ 160.919997, 163.854544, 171.008572, 181.100646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 157.800003, "volume": 2191, "typical_volume": 7359.45, "trend": 196.196667, "fair_value": 146.751613, "relative_strength": -17.768267, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.993144, "energy": 42.801025, "activity_lines": [ 159.546665, 162.018181, 169.14381, 178.354194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 148.800003, "volume": 5279, "typical_volume": 6872.4, "trend": 191.923334, "fair_value": 146.773405, "relative_strength": -23.708669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.389598, "energy": 47.139732, "activity_lines": [ 155.52, 159.072727, 166.637144, 175.296345 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 153.0, "volume": 7746, "typical_volume": 6521.3, "trend": 188.040001, "fair_value": 146.838948, "relative_strength": -23.295489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.78383, "energy": 45.646781, "activity_lines": [ 154.04, 157.385454, 164.793334, 172.785162 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }