{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4eec2666-7dae-4567-a9af-1d650e4dc1c5", "symbol": "MKTX", "name": "MarketAxess Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 8.424, "architecture_energy": 31.008, "architecture_maturity": 39.67, "architecture_confidence": 59.374, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.45, "rotation_up": 50.19, "upward_expansion": 25.37, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 20.0, "downward_expansion": 61.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 143.558667, 131.850727, 132.815864, 141.13607 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 162.53, "trend_reference": 151.772777, "distance_from_trend": 0.070877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 201.826956, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.194706, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.693872, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.01136, "excess_performance": -0.176094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070877, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089552, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.194706, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114001, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126939, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.207357, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01136, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.158737, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5843083, "relative_activity": 1.597816, "balance": 1.158737, "dry_up": 1.7981, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068858, "annualized_volatility": 0.572949, "from_high_reference": -0.165922, "from_low_reference": 0.494529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 151.772777, "fair_value_reference": 201.826956, "structural_low": 108.75, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008865, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021742, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.117716, "worst_return": -0.078717, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.02857, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.147645, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.236719, "worst_return": -0.368159, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.139152, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.303621, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.010873, "worst_return": -0.320832, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -38.398432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.970807, "energy": 67.571322, "activity_lines": [ 114.629333, 117.799284, 131.329595, 142.256205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 116.69, "volume": 2211358, "typical_volume": 2834062.1, "trend": 152.406511, "fair_value": 202.667851, "relative_strength": -34.879472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.613535, "energy": 64.327321, "activity_lines": [ 115.055333, 116.838909, 128.678112, 139.813551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 162.3, "volume": 16179613, "typical_volume": 3486607.85, "trend": 151.924443, "fair_value": 202.220321, "relative_strength": -9.028571, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.259691, "energy": 17.362545, "activity_lines": [ 130.927333, 124.552727, 130.696021, 140.451841 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 162.53, "volume": 5843083, "typical_volume": 3656919.65, "trend": 151.772777, "fair_value": 201.826956, "relative_strength": -12.693872, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.424119, "energy": 31.007695, "activity_lines": [ 143.558667, 131.850727, 132.815864, 141.13607 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }