{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ef1bf98-dcb1-4c80-9e1c-b748acb1b037", "symbol": "SPPY", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P 500 Leaders UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.048, "architecture_energy": 59.788, "architecture_maturity": 60.783, "architecture_confidence": 54.224, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.2, "rotation_up": 45.33, "upward_expansion": 76.11, "deceleration": 77.02, "rotation_down": 28.85, "downward_expansion": 9.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.096001, 40.971182, 40.487286, 39.678543 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 42.205002, "trend_reference": 38.723166, "distance_from_trend": 0.089916, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.373218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129285, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.871682, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.134696, "excess_performance": 0.08346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089916, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036594, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129285, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052227, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038717, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020504, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134696, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.990827, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12747, "relative_activity": 0.467045, "balance": 0.990827, "dry_up": 1.283587, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018744, "annualized_volatility": 0.119327, "from_high_reference": -0.008574, "from_low_reference": 0.256101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.723166, "fair_value_reference": 37.373218, "structural_low": 34.904999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.033613, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.001871, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.072031, "worst_return": -0.123474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.065447, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.038841, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148575, "worst_return": -0.09386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.148137, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.116861, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.168119, "worst_return": -0.21399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.061981, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.028135, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.341632, "worst_return": -0.166751, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103469, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045576, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101427, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121346, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.160749, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010483, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001223, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000805, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", 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40.741727, 39.91694, 39.161328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.615002, "volume": 41593, "typical_volume": 24891.55, "trend": 38.439, "fair_value": 37.245124, "relative_strength": 1.604907, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.655997, "energy": 49.733956, "activity_lines": [ 40.659001, 40.732091, 40.077048, 39.309779 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.514999, "volume": 72608, "typical_volume": 27735.0, "trend": 38.565166, "fair_value": 37.303001, "relative_strength": 0.099331, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.38791, "energy": 40.952746, "activity_lines": [ 40.577, 40.700637, 40.211321, 39.443715 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.205002, "volume": 12747, "typical_volume": 27292.85, "trend": 38.723166, "fair_value": 37.373218, "relative_strength": 3.871682, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.047851, "energy": 59.787582, "activity_lines": [ 41.096001, 40.971182, 40.487286, 39.678543 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }