{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ef46cff-2b83-46bf-9f66-98a2793f9fc1", "symbol": "ALFPC", "name": "Fountaine Pajot SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.426, "architecture_energy": 50.06, "architecture_maturity": 12.47, "architecture_confidence": 91.41, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.78, "rotation_up": 13.14, "upward_expansion": 8.92, "deceleration": 41.82, "rotation_down": 61.87, "downward_expansion": 82.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 87.813332, 89.207271, 91.00249, 91.165778 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 86.599998, "trend_reference": 91.724562, "distance_from_trend": -0.055869, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 98.82334, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.123689, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.991836, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.074108, "excess_performance": -0.127419, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055869, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040485, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.123689, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049135, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084618, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074108, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.249409, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4897, "relative_activity": 1.070359, "balance": 0.249409, "dry_up": 1.227678, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052585, "annualized_volatility": 0.27341, "from_high_reference": -0.242882, "from_low_reference": 0.012865 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 91.724562, "fair_value_reference": 98.82334, "structural_low": 85.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.016512, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.017006, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.197365, "worst_return": -0.110651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.010204, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.014012, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.300595, "worst_return": -0.125224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069981, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.065846, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.278342, "worst_return": -0.13832, "sufficient": true 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"relative_strength": -14.222512, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.092002, "energy": 41.397684, "activity_lines": [ 89.886665, 92.04909, 92.289968, 92.360609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 90.0, "volume": 4415, "typical_volume": 4745.85, "trend": 93.164905, "fair_value": 99.233833, "relative_strength": -10.492883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.914014, "energy": 38.810316, "activity_lines": [ 89.299999, 91.559999, 92.117235, 92.121589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 89.199997, "volume": 8977, "typical_volume": 4928.35, "trend": 92.689267, "fair_value": 99.098265, "relative_strength": -11.190033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.874548, "energy": 48.400913, "activity_lines": [ 88.946665, 90.979999, 91.886055, 91.865788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 87.5, "volume": 4178, "typical_volume": 4508.25, "trend": 92.260886, "fair_value": 98.963687, "relative_strength": -13.696532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.944997, "energy": 58.772053, "activity_lines": [ 88.379999, 90.147272, 91.486688, 91.530997 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 86.599998, "volume": 4897, "typical_volume": 4575.1, "trend": 91.724562, "fair_value": 98.82334, "relative_strength": -15.991836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.426343, "energy": 50.059672, "activity_lines": [ 87.813332, 89.207271, 91.00249, 91.165778 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }