{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ef6faca-2016-47c0-919a-53dce3cdcad8", "symbol": "00702", "name": "Cathay S&P 500 Low Volatility High Dividend ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.329, "architecture_energy": 91.095, "architecture_maturity": 16.094, "architecture_confidence": 60.977, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.45, "rotation_up": 85.74, "upward_expansion": 99.94, "deceleration": 39.01, "rotation_down": 8.13, "downward_expansion": 21.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.110125, 24.744852, 24.361815, 24.209702 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 25.23, "trend_reference": 24.001587, "distance_from_trend": 0.05118, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.769291, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.158972, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.622781, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.086096, "excess_performance": -0.293216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05118, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030264, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.158972, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036886, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206228, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091688, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086096, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.338376, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 531000, "relative_activity": 1.438995, "balance": 1.338376, "dry_up": 1.265179, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014493, "annualized_volatility": 0.088737, "from_high_reference": -0.012524, "from_low_reference": 0.195617 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.001587, "fair_value_reference": 21.769291, "structural_low": 23.43, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.008246, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.00314, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.090692, "worst_return": -0.084178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.002809, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.079699, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.119888, "worst_return": -0.129491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04803, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.059177, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.176522, "worst_return": -0.068515, 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23.873521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.82, "volume": 285000, "typical_volume": 344164.35, "trend": 23.750421, "fair_value": 21.643431, "relative_strength": -21.136433, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.589129, "energy": 85.620902, "activity_lines": [ 24.460134, 24.201893, 24.018135, 23.947801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.0, "volume": 689114, "typical_volume": 359370.05, "trend": 23.826194, "fair_value": 21.685776, "relative_strength": -21.698792, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.259067, "energy": 91.495182, "activity_lines": [ 24.711441, 24.372394, 24.118838, 24.028419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.32, "volume": 362329, "typical_volume": 357019.85, "trend": 23.913931, "fair_value": 21.728415, "relative_strength": -19.020129, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.534577, "energy": 95.022273, "activity_lines": [ 24.975365, 24.578532, 24.247969, 24.124794 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.23, "volume": 531000, "typical_volume": 369007.65, "trend": 24.001587, "fair_value": 21.769291, "relative_strength": -20.622781, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.329354, "energy": 91.095464, "activity_lines": [ 25.110125, 24.744852, 24.361815, 24.209702 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }