{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ef7dfdd-9292-4c91-ae49-15817d0c6f5c", "symbol": "NMMAO", "name": "New Millennium Multi Asset Opportunity L", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 67.753, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.778, "architecture_energy": 10.491, "architecture_maturity": 33.649, "architecture_confidence": 65.965, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.32, "rotation_up": 35.45, "upward_expansion": 58.19, "deceleration": 76.43, "rotation_down": 17.06, "downward_expansion": 10.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 121.556668, 121.622001, 120.959238, 120.325613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 122.080002, "trend_reference": 119.757333, "distance_from_trend": 0.019395, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 113.287436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.077613, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.944644, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.021675, "excess_performance": -0.149216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019395, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010161, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.077613, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010574, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119446, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013628, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021675, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 5.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 2.439743, "annualized_volatility": 0.053395, "from_high_reference": -0.969357, "from_low_reference": 0.059998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 119.757333, "fair_value_reference": 113.287436, "structural_low": 115.699997, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005827, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.009798, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.011373, "worst_return": -0.014816, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.027085, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042007, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.033192, "worst_return": 0.020977, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.060035, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.128545, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.060035, "worst_return": 0.060035, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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112.609551, "relative_strength": -9.9613, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.198364, "energy": 15.76692, "activity_lines": [ 121.326667, 120.668, 119.697809, 119.41815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 122.580002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 119.189999, "fair_value": 112.729679, "relative_strength": -11.800409, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.228243, "energy": 15.811409, "activity_lines": [ 121.817334, 121.119637, 120.014047, 119.646838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 121.839996, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 119.332666, "fair_value": 112.850769, "relative_strength": -11.634677, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.826573, "energy": 15.273023, "activity_lines": [ 121.942, 121.366182, 120.24719, 119.817806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 121.449997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 119.453333, "fair_value": 112.962692, "relative_strength": -10.334881, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.474014, "energy": 14.704878, "activity_lines": [ 121.843332, 121.482363, 120.436761, 119.954408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 121.190002, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": 2.0, "trend": 119.559999, "fair_value": 113.07, "relative_strength": -10.060181, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.111476, "energy": 14.157269, "activity_lines": [ 121.626666, 121.513091, 120.597619, 120.066451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 121.160004, "volume": 10175, "typical_volume": 510.75, "trend": 119.662999, "fair_value": 113.173718, "relative_strength": -10.356124, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.74447, "energy": 10.482979, "activity_lines": [ 121.411334, 121.494, 120.742762, 120.169677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 122.080002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 510.75, "trend": 119.757333, "fair_value": 113.287436, "relative_strength": -11.944644, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.778183, "energy": 10.490533, "activity_lines": [ 121.556668, 121.622001, 120.959238, 120.325613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }