{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4effb485-2feb-4153-857c-c4ce46cc3459", "symbol": "WHS", "name": "The Warehouse Group Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.174, "architecture_energy": 43.017, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.303, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.34, "rotation_up": 27.91, "upward_expansion": 11.03, "deceleration": 55.36, "rotation_down": 43.26, "downward_expansion": 73.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.589667, 0.590455, 0.608333, 0.630667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.58, "trend_reference": 0.6625, "distance_from_trend": -0.124528, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.037413, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.440917, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.423525, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.236842, "excess_performance": -0.265116, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124528, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07794, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.440917, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011301, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214235, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039323, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.236842, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.907296, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150292, "relative_activity": 0.618726, "balance": 0.907296, "dry_up": 0.799645, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059019, "annualized_volatility": 0.297718, "from_high_reference": -0.309524, "from_low_reference": 0.06422 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.6625, "fair_value_reference": 1.037413, "structural_low": 0.545, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.033101, "positive_rate": 0.282609, "directional_follow_through": 0.717391, "median_excess_return": -0.029835, "regime_survival": 0.891304, "best_return": 0.42, "worst_return": -0.225941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.056521, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.074134, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.113794, "worst_return": -0.330739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.145273, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.180066, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.100495, "worst_return": -0.424873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024844, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.255486, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.15493, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033333, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.206132, "energy": 42.628421, "activity_lines": [ 0.598, 0.598182, 0.61931, 0.642269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.58, "volume": 234168, "typical_volume": 244280.2, "trend": 0.6675, "fair_value": 1.044246, "relative_strength": -21.327501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.277983, "energy": 41.637029, "activity_lines": [ 0.593667, 0.593636, 0.613524, 0.636312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.58, "volume": 150292, "typical_volume": 242905.65, "trend": 0.6625, "fair_value": 1.037413, "relative_strength": -21.423525, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.173825, "energy": 43.016541, "activity_lines": [ 0.589667, 0.590455, 0.608333, 0.630667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }