{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f05e6aa-c8c3-4b1c-8299-52f4cce5f457", "symbol": "RBT", "name": "Robertet SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 76.59, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.601, "architecture_energy": 21.153, "architecture_maturity": 11.835, "architecture_confidence": 75.523, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.1, "rotation_up": 24.25, "upward_expansion": 6.03, "deceleration": 45.82, "rotation_down": 37.27, "downward_expansion": 67.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 801.4, 803.662564, 804.490053, 810.224096 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 810.0, "trend_reference": 822.934312, "distance_from_trend": -0.015717, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 827.322613, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.020938, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.320939, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.032258, "excess_performance": -0.085569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015717, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030349, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.020938, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042755, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093209, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003929, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032258, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.38888, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3726, "relative_activity": 0.737625, "balance": 2.38888, "dry_up": 0.965089, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043577, "annualized_volatility": 0.275616, "from_high_reference": -0.121475, "from_low_reference": 0.090175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 822.934312, "fair_value_reference": 827.322613, "structural_low": 743.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.006133, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.008739, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.105263, "worst_return": -0.064147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.012158, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.052326, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.06152, "worst_return": -0.048269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006688, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.126881, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.041854, "worst_return": -0.101317, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049566, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014977, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025996, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072393, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03304, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", 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804.942714, 812.867233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 802.0, "volume": 4255, "typical_volume": 6975.15, "trend": 825.200979, "fair_value": 827.249202, "relative_strength": -8.286871, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.324344, "energy": 21.690667, "activity_lines": [ 799.666667, 802.55481, 804.337812, 811.204804 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 810.0, "volume": 3726, "typical_volume": 5051.35, "trend": 822.934312, "fair_value": 827.322613, "relative_strength": -9.320939, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.600714, "energy": 21.153492, "activity_lines": [ 801.4, 803.662564, 804.490053, 810.224096 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }