{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f097597-a6c5-4548-95b9-b6c95465589f", "symbol": "XMF-A", "name": "M Split Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.173, "architecture_energy": 74.322, "architecture_maturity": 46.558, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.26, "rotation_up": 59.1, "upward_expansion": 91.29, "deceleration": 46.73, "rotation_down": 22.58, "downward_expansion": 17.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.839333, 1.780909, 1.554762, 1.397097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.77, "trend_reference": 1.244, "distance_from_trend": 0.42283, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.570064, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.104914, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 59.83205, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.77, "excess_performance": 0.649579, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.42283, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.298087, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.104914, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.887115, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.598321, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.393205, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.77, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.525773, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13500, "relative_activity": 1.09135, "balance": 2.525773, "dry_up": 1.717866, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127336, "annualized_volatility": 1.206145, "from_high_reference": -0.161137, "from_low_reference": 2.933333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.244, "fair_value_reference": 0.570064, "structural_low": 0.7, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.019225, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.01396, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.754386, "worst_return": -0.28, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.077778, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015059, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.555556, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.153846, 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"2026-06-12", "close": 1.69, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 5705.0, "trend": 1.005333, "fair_value": 0.488654, "relative_strength": 86.030279, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.035763, "energy": 83.16818, "activity_lines": [ 1.469333, 1.240182, 1.097429, 1.062559 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 1.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5545.0, "trend": 1.025, "fair_value": 0.497244, "relative_strength": 62.311646, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.766863, "energy": 79.239721, "activity_lines": [ 1.523333, 1.314182, 1.141619, 1.094473 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.61, "volume": 60000, "typical_volume": 8545.0, "trend": 1.052, "fair_value": 0.506538, "relative_strength": 70.996075, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.379944, "energy": 77.077586, "activity_lines": [ 1.574, 1.398182, 1.193905, 1.132215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.61, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8545.0, "trend": 1.079, "fair_value": 0.515833, "relative_strength": 66.681037, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.106794, "energy": 70.107566, "activity_lines": [ 1.584, 1.467818, 1.243286, 1.168215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.91, "volume": 1800, "typical_volume": 8635.0, "trend": 1.119333, "fair_value": 0.527051, "relative_strength": 93.338239, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.795716, "energy": 66.699949, "activity_lines": [ 1.700667, 1.576364, 1.318333, 1.221828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.91, "volume": 66300, "typical_volume": 11925.0, "trend": 1.157667, "fair_value": 0.538269, "relative_strength": 89.608271, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.642914, "energy": 79.982971, "activity_lines": [ 1.782667, 1.663273, 1.389048, 1.272839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.91, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11895.0, "trend": 1.192333, "fair_value": 0.549359, "relative_strength": 84.725877, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.500342, "energy": 82.720136, "activity_lines": [ 1.85, 1.733636, 1.455476, 1.321376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.82, "volume": 5200, "typical_volume": 12125.0, "trend": 1.224, "fair_value": 0.559872, "relative_strength": 73.086637, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.694315, "energy": 81.240095, "activity_lines": [ 1.86, 1.769273, 1.509333, 1.361871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.77, "volume": 13500, "typical_volume": 12370.0, "trend": 1.244, "fair_value": 0.570064, "relative_strength": 59.83205, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.172699, "energy": 74.321822, "activity_lines": [ 1.839333, 1.780909, 1.554762, 1.397097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }