{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f0a54a6-efbd-4e6a-84e2-9fb5a0c85a2a", "symbol": "ATUL", "name": "Atul Ltd", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 18.542, "architecture_energy": 10.811, "architecture_maturity": 16.595, "architecture_confidence": 61.104, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.34, "rotation_up": 37.93, "upward_expansion": 33.2, "deceleration": 50.16, "rotation_down": 31.27, "downward_expansion": 23.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 6569.526758, 6510.550044, 6598.79472, 6583.475333 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6774.0, "trend_reference": 6524.207129, "distance_from_trend": 0.038287, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6587.016865, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.028387, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.51126, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.048769, "excess_performance": 0.092478, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038287, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029258, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.028387, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045682, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.075113, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062546, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048769, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.540042, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 350368, "relative_activity": 1.92864, "balance": 2.540042, "dry_up": 2.353436, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046394, "annualized_volatility": 0.185711, "from_high_reference": -0.056546, "from_low_reference": 0.218236 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6524.207129, "fair_value_reference": 6587.016865, "structural_low": 5962.598597, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.003368, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.007792, "regime_survival": 0.294118, "best_return": 0.08283, "worst_return": -0.088017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.063324, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.059236, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.185893, "worst_return": -0.177571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.098968, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.029723, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.085845, "worst_return": -0.17006, "sufficient": 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"fair_value": 6589.927155, "relative_strength": -1.327985, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.656044, "energy": 44.280519, "activity_lines": [ 6324.521647, 6465.107164, 6580.464441, 6553.211121 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6407.5, "volume": 539085, "typical_volume": 146609.4, "trend": 6479.990462, "fair_value": 6588.813574, "relative_strength": 5.254637, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.118816, "energy": 40.699068, "activity_lines": [ 6329.208724, 6427.903276, 6564.903899, 6549.30636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6736.5, "volume": 617561, "typical_volume": 168833.3, "trend": 6500.890462, "fair_value": 6586.907659, "relative_strength": 7.765566, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.079779, "energy": 15.223289, "activity_lines": [ 6446.408756, 6463.108478, 6580.712405, 6565.855363 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6774.0, "volume": 350368, "typical_volume": 181665.85, "trend": 6524.207129, "fair_value": 6587.016865, "relative_strength": 7.51126, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.541541, "energy": 10.810865, "activity_lines": [ 6569.526758, 6510.550044, 6598.79472, 6583.475333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }