{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f17132f-c313-49b8-83ac-c376a9d6db6d", "symbol": "DIBS", "name": "1Stdibs.Com Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 76.784, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.012, "architecture_energy": 21.32, "architecture_maturity": 30.303, "architecture_confidence": 81.983, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.16, "rotation_up": 23.76, "upward_expansion": 4.29, "deceleration": 50.23, "rotation_down": 40.04, "downward_expansion": 72.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.567333, 4.591273, 4.61881, 4.773742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.08, "trend_reference": 4.993667, "distance_from_trend": 0.017289, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.276378, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.187921, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.230559, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.036053, "excess_performance": -0.223507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017289, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062633, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.187921, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173526, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032306, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095306, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036053, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.907, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 675844, "relative_activity": 0.688246, "balance": 1.907, "dry_up": 0.456904, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113471, "annualized_volatility": 0.619674, "from_high_reference": -0.233173, "from_low_reference": 1.02924 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.993667, "fair_value_reference": 4.276378, "structural_low": 3.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.012575, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.076644, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.230315, "worst_return": -0.2657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.057935, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.133615, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.073469, "worst_return": -0.37018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.173163, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.318517, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.251337, "worst_return": -0.323907, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046771, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.023585, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.249383, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037162, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00722, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", 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4.568909, 4.787905, 4.963097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.68, "volume": 492982, "typical_volume": 1129556.9, "trend": 5.178, "fair_value": 4.261506, "relative_strength": -9.501632, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.611744, "energy": 19.48918, "activity_lines": [ 4.756667, 4.597818, 4.760238, 4.928151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.59, "volume": 331543, "typical_volume": 1084617.1, "trend": 5.133667, "fair_value": 4.265609, "relative_strength": -7.83925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.848612, "energy": 20.473853, "activity_lines": [ 4.74, 4.611455, 4.727524, 4.890215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.11, "volume": 421533, "typical_volume": 1035637.0, "trend": 5.073667, "fair_value": 4.266699, "relative_strength": -16.416437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.399408, "energy": 28.737424, "activity_lines": [ 4.529333, 4.532182, 4.650143, 4.824172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.23, "volume": 365764, "typical_volume": 990257.75, "trend": 5.018, "fair_value": 4.269583, "relative_strength": -14.761524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.209692, "energy": 38.280145, "activity_lines": [ 4.373333, 4.481091, 4.591286, 4.769742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.08, "volume": 675844, "typical_volume": 981979.95, "trend": 4.993667, "fair_value": 4.276378, "relative_strength": -3.230559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.012361, "energy": 21.320446, "activity_lines": [ 4.567333, 4.591273, 4.61881, 4.773742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }