{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f20926e-8b28-49c9-b316-db0b0d55343a", "symbol": "GRFS", "name": "Grifols SA ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.785, "architecture_energy": 17.338, "architecture_maturity": 97.203, "architecture_confidence": 64.473, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.58, "rotation_up": 37.88, "upward_expansion": 22.49, "deceleration": 41.13, "rotation_down": 19.52, "downward_expansion": 54.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.715333, 7.543411, 7.619599, 7.789733 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.94, "trend_reference": 8.109333, "distance_from_trend": -0.020881, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.275971, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.040596, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.527119, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.144397, "excess_performance": -0.33185, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020881, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055706, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.040596, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009957, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062237, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144397, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.06351, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2211869, "relative_activity": 0.651928, "balance": 1.06351, "dry_up": 1.111364, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059947, "annualized_volatility": 0.296868, "from_high_reference": -0.26719, "from_low_reference": 0.155855 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.109333, "fair_value_reference": 8.275971, "structural_low": 6.869376, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.013187, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": -0.013377, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.300955, "worst_return": -0.318729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.095206, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.050584, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.476408, "worst_return": -0.261798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.116097, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.134261, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.37415, "worst_return": -0.239726, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 7.360252, 7.38084, 7.584837, 7.825195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.87, "volume": 5168081, "typical_volume": 3500768.7, "trend": 8.156999, "fair_value": 8.288825, "relative_strength": -18.052547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.72562, "energy": 19.57091, "activity_lines": [ 7.545333, 7.455707, 7.599028, 7.803733 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.94, "volume": 2211869, "typical_volume": 3392813.05, "trend": 8.109333, "fair_value": 8.275971, "relative_strength": -20.527119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.784903, "energy": 17.338087, "activity_lines": [ 7.715333, 7.543411, 7.619599, 7.789733 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }