{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f212859-02de-42ad-98fc-5b0ea4aad826", "symbol": "JREG", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - Global Research Enhanced Index Equity Active UCITS ETF - USD (acc)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.825, "architecture_energy": 69.629, "architecture_maturity": 74.306, "architecture_confidence": 80.387, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 59.28, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.1, "rotation_down": 27.66, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.436667, 58.113273, 57.209143, 56.055161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 59.57, "trend_reference": 54.704667, "distance_from_trend": 0.088938, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.654679, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276828, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.293028, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.138353, "excess_performance": 0.073713, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088938, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041524, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276828, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042952, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04293, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047437, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.138353, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.505864, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 178444, "relative_activity": 1.521041, "balance": 1.505864, "dry_up": 1.704756, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017588, "annualized_volatility": 0.104874, "from_high_reference": -0.002846, "from_low_reference": 0.242854 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.704667, "fair_value_reference": 46.654679, "structural_low": 49.740002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.012866, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.005021, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.07276, "worst_return": -0.081943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.025851, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.036387, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.102076, "worst_return": -0.153182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.088013, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.088265, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.157383, "worst_return": -0.075353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.40287, "energy": 67.368947, "activity_lines": [ 57.971334, 57.697091, 56.582667, 55.505505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.700001, "volume": 192544, "typical_volume": 120131.75, "trend": 54.478333, "fair_value": 46.504455, "relative_strength": 4.000439, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.184847, "energy": 61.737569, "activity_lines": [ 57.908001, 57.744182, 56.820714, 55.726667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.57, "volume": 178444, "typical_volume": 117317.05, "trend": 54.704667, "fair_value": 46.654679, "relative_strength": 4.293028, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.825214, "energy": 69.628558, "activity_lines": [ 58.436667, 58.113273, 57.209143, 56.055161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }