{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f21b909-b470-4e2a-890a-6bee7b440f8c", "symbol": "COFA", "name": "COFACE SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.235, "architecture_energy": 77.861, "architecture_maturity": 37.141, "architecture_confidence": 77.636, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 75.3, "upward_expansion": 93.35, "deceleration": 43.02, "rotation_down": 11.75, "downward_expansion": 17.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.005333, 15.753818, 15.402689, 15.100634 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.1, "trend_reference": 14.780665, "distance_from_trend": 0.089261, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.841187, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.253778, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.025729, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.077264, "excess_performance": 0.023953, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089261, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03412, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.253778, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062614, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030257, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027123, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077264, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.928036, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 976086, "relative_activity": 1.16253, "balance": 0.928036, "dry_up": 1.138567, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032265, "annualized_volatility": 0.166453, "from_high_reference": -0.017694, "from_low_reference": 0.243234 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.780665, "fair_value_reference": 12.841187, "structural_low": 13.107124, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.01432, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.009724, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.1133, "worst_return": -0.08786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.055222, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.032215, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.129032, "worst_return": -0.115821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.111006, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.053994, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.21579, "worst_return": -0.085723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.397336, "energy": 82.370287, "activity_lines": [ 15.648, 15.376366, 15.064901, 14.84308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.1, "volume": 898787, "typical_volume": 855372.75, "trend": 14.683124, "fair_value": 12.768798, "relative_strength": 7.083104, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.949277, "energy": 85.280824, "activity_lines": [ 15.853333, 15.532644, 15.197414, 14.938187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.83, "volume": 970484, "typical_volume": 849335.45, "trend": 14.728934, "fair_value": 12.804227, "relative_strength": 3.666953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.695759, "energy": 78.251889, "activity_lines": [ 15.909333, 15.624545, 15.292995, 15.012179 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.1, "volume": 976086, "typical_volume": 839622.25, "trend": 14.780665, "fair_value": 12.841187, "relative_strength": 3.025729, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.235167, "energy": 77.860686, "activity_lines": [ 16.005333, 15.753818, 15.402689, 15.100634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }