{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f237d3d-d27b-4ff5-aa60-84e282a09e5f", "symbol": "HGTY", "name": "Hagerty Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.958, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 55.28, "architecture_energy": 43.403, "architecture_maturity": 26.192, "architecture_confidence": 72.597, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.75, "rotation_up": 61.02, "upward_expansion": 49.09, "deceleration": 38.66, "rotation_down": 21.38, "downward_expansion": 12.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.365333, 12.082909, 11.501667, 11.322237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.61, "trend_reference": 11.337667, "distance_from_trend": 0.200423, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.265897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.325749, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.921969, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080159, "excess_performance": -0.045466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.200423, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040076, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.325749, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.327015, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02922, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.243319, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080159, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.22571, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1183444, "relative_activity": 1.541471, "balance": 2.22571, "dry_up": 0.895715, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068698, "annualized_volatility": 0.378037, "from_high_reference": -0.027857, "from_low_reference": 0.45406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.337667, "fair_value_reference": 10.265897, "structural_low": 9.36, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.011136, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.010894, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.112837, "worst_return": -0.016683, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.150683, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.090718, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.176644, "worst_return": 0.124722, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.283325, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.202628, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.290481, "worst_return": 0.276169, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031915, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047325, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007851, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053953, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.237794, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", 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"modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.962643, "energy": 56.489857, "activity_lines": [ 12.038667, 11.553273, 11.119048, 11.149161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.68, "volume": 501510, "typical_volume": 808146.8, "trend": 11.373333, "fair_value": 10.217564, "relative_strength": -7.586023, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.40785, "energy": 55.300869, "activity_lines": [ 11.980667, 11.642, 11.196714, 11.164344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.53, "volume": 458554, "typical_volume": 768879.0, "trend": 11.319333, "fair_value": 10.237436, "relative_strength": -9.674652, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.33952, "energy": 28.52648, "activity_lines": [ 11.818667, 11.680909, 11.253238, 11.174452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.61, "volume": 1183444, "typical_volume": 767736.9, "trend": 11.337667, "fair_value": 10.265897, "relative_strength": 2.921969, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 55.279516, "energy": 43.402988, "activity_lines": [ 12.365333, 12.082909, 11.501667, 11.322237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }