{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f315c8a-a683-4fcd-b12f-b3cfe58132e1", "symbol": "300610", "name": "Yangzhou Chenhua New Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.882, "architecture_energy": 57.809, "architecture_maturity": 39.167, "architecture_confidence": 91.248, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 19.27, "upward_expansion": 9.66, "deceleration": 57.11, "rotation_down": 62.2, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.343333, 9.522503, 10.256023, 10.731961 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.77, "trend_reference": 11.290424, "distance_from_trend": -0.134665, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.430048, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.063283, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.711711, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.197865, "excess_performance": -0.205265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134665, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056379, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.063283, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25767, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187117, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040458, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.197865, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.510459, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18173068, "relative_activity": 1.027692, "balance": 0.510459, "dry_up": 1.091664, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08024, "annualized_volatility": 0.356907, "from_high_reference": -0.290487, "from_low_reference": 0.171463 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.290424, "fair_value_reference": 10.430048, "structural_low": 8.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.002108, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.003334, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.304506, "worst_return": -0.166161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.135071, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.005468, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.714015, "worst_return": -0.172989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02158, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.005837, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.197369, "worst_return": -0.192111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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9.15, "volume": 17008200, "typical_volume": 21321718.6, "trend": 11.528757, "fair_value": 10.463156, "relative_strength": -22.808113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.63771, "energy": 89.976005, "activity_lines": [ 9.556167, 10.005378, 10.762395, 11.150452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.68, "volume": 21970330, "typical_volume": 20436883.5, "trend": 11.43609, "fair_value": 10.44848, "relative_strength": -26.352867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.954404, "energy": 87.954175, "activity_lines": [ 9.206227, 9.672966, 10.518525, 10.966661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.38, "volume": 20065670, "typical_volume": 19693733.95, "trend": 11.351757, "fair_value": 10.4386, "relative_strength": -18.534203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.809508, "energy": 73.75673, "activity_lines": [ 9.196667, 9.538007, 10.360464, 10.83401 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.77, "volume": 18173068, "typical_volume": 17683388.0, "trend": 11.290424, "fair_value": 10.430048, "relative_strength": -18.711711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.881914, "energy": 57.808683, "activity_lines": [ 9.343333, 9.522503, 10.256023, 10.731961 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }