{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f32d0d0-3ff5-4371-a572-99a994c991be", "symbol": "VLE", "name": "Valeura Energy Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.112, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.804, "architecture_energy": 14.839, "architecture_maturity": 23.829, "architecture_confidence": 57.455, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.13, "rotation_up": 49.92, "upward_expansion": 31.99, "deceleration": 46.07, "rotation_down": 22.79, "downward_expansion": 25.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.963333, 11.590364, 11.725333, 11.960624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.54, "trend_reference": 11.851667, "distance_from_trend": -0.026297, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.857051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.682939, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.587598, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.058716, "excess_performance": -0.061706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026297, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117765, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.682939, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.383559, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035876, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210537, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058716, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.774715, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1961600, "relative_activity": 0.809548, "balance": 0.774715, "dry_up": 0.814047, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09692, "annualized_volatility": 0.551837, "from_high_reference": -0.260256, "from_low_reference": 0.901153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.851667, "fair_value_reference": 6.857051, "structural_low": 10.06, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.036004, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.024555, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.364035, "worst_return": -0.1079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.067613, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.052435, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.1875, "worst_return": -0.098453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.258369, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.247615, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.666667, "worst_return": -0.088193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.68459, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.49191, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 4.395833, "worst_return": 0.041667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.155385, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047552, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.295875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112183, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054422, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068511, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054572, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165436, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040195, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.337691, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2262, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.150369, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078275, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.21, "volume": 2198800, "typical_volume": 1905895.0, "trend": 2.340333, "fair_value": 0.919167, "relative_strength": 24.302052, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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-23.710669, "energy": 40.547809, "activity_lines": [ 10.775333, 11.09, 11.832333, 11.820516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.75, "volume": 1576000, "typical_volume": 2760080.0, "trend": 11.449, "fair_value": 6.668718, "relative_strength": 9.300253, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.384998, "energy": 30.962276, "activity_lines": [ 11.052667, 11.137818, 11.777143, 11.847548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.47, "volume": 2208100, "typical_volume": 2757390.0, "trend": 11.590333, "fair_value": 6.734231, "relative_strength": 15.40556, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.255545, "energy": 7.118941, "activity_lines": [ 11.564667, 11.330727, 11.787, 11.913419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.52, "volume": 2144300, "typical_volume": 2647560.0, "trend": 11.738, "fair_value": 6.799231, "relative_strength": 16.205048, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.152358, "energy": 17.004262, "activity_lines": [ 12.006, 11.552364, 11.798286, 11.973398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.54, "volume": 1961600, "typical_volume": 2423080.0, "trend": 11.851667, "fair_value": 6.857051, "relative_strength": 3.587598, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.804413, "energy": 14.838801, "activity_lines": [ 11.963333, 11.590364, 11.725333, 11.960624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }