{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f357a92-f341-4e5e-9e41-12635a2024c4", "symbol": "DAVA", "name": "Endava Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.405, "architecture_energy": 43.601, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.422, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.48, "rotation_up": 27.35, "upward_expansion": 18.64, "deceleration": 66.16, "rotation_down": 42.7, "downward_expansion": 68.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.871333, 2.851273, 3.115095, 3.505054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.95, "trend_reference": 4.145667, "distance_from_trend": -0.288414, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.950256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.886321, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.723262, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.459707, "excess_performance": -0.585332, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.288414, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243905, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.886321, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023974, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.577233, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022524, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.459707, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.619416, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1091475, "relative_activity": 0.668466, "balance": 0.619416, "dry_up": 0.823417, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148498, "annualized_volatility": 0.593485, "from_high_reference": -0.803202, "from_low_reference": 0.156863 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.145667, "fair_value_reference": 25.950256, "structural_low": 2.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.046467, "positive_rate": 0.365854, "directional_follow_through": 0.609756, "median_excess_return": -0.063672, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.162941, "worst_return": -0.275269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.172125, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.192475, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.263158, "worst_return": -0.407333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.256448, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.233413, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": -0.146323, "worst_return": -0.537047, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.677908, "energy": 62.760264, "activity_lines": [ 2.830667, 2.941636, 3.440762, 3.917957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.82, "volume": 1142284, "typical_volume": 1671902.5, "trend": 4.513333, "fair_value": 26.868462, "relative_strength": -62.117904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.831938, "energy": 58.699816, "activity_lines": [ 2.828, 2.882545, 3.340381, 3.800065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.66, "volume": 838006, "typical_volume": 1608503.65, "trend": 4.381333, "fair_value": 26.553269, "relative_strength": -62.611568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.324601, "energy": 61.937417, "activity_lines": [ 2.777333, 2.818182, 3.233619, 3.680495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.99, "volume": 2306155, "typical_volume": 1643767.85, "trend": 4.278, "fair_value": 26.242692, "relative_strength": -57.108283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.802617, "energy": 50.029112, "activity_lines": [ 2.836, 2.835273, 3.17181, 3.590731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.95, "volume": 1091475, "typical_volume": 1632805.6, "trend": 4.145667, "fair_value": 25.950256, "relative_strength": -57.723262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.404912, "energy": 43.601474, "activity_lines": [ 2.871333, 2.851273, 3.115095, 3.505054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }