{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f374266-cd2b-4532-a0f0-ac74959f147a", "symbol": "PMAR", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF - March", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.443, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.298, "architecture_energy": 73.634, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.501, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.04, "rotation_up": 64.95, "upward_expansion": 89.37, "deceleration": 51.05, "rotation_down": 25.12, "downward_expansion": 13.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.170333, 47.9706, 47.646662, 47.127054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 48.615, "trend_reference": 46.489053, "distance_from_trend": 0.04573, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.5467, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.198988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.700532, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071759, "excess_performance": -0.053866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04573, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023702, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.198988, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001394, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047005, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000648, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071759, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.640419, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75551, "relative_activity": 0.469886, "balance": 1.640419, "dry_up": 0.366626, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009847, "annualized_volatility": 0.063383, "from_high_reference": -0.001745, "from_low_reference": 0.13319 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.489053, "fair_value_reference": 40.5467, "structural_low": 43.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 51, "median_return": 0.009049, "positive_rate": 0.843137, "directional_follow_through": 0.843137, "median_excess_return": -0.004114, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.049538, "worst_return": -0.045586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.026213, "positive_rate": 0.823529, "directional_follow_through": 0.823529, "median_excess_return": -0.022947, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.071509, "worst_return": -0.034678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.063844, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.023438, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.079565, "worst_return": -0.00547, "sufficient": true }, { 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46.9622, 46.510135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.07, "volume": 69454, "typical_volume": 329213.55, "trend": 46.075053, "fair_value": 40.185192, "relative_strength": -3.975695, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.171025, "energy": 76.069743, "activity_lines": [ 47.759093, 47.646444, 47.121597, 46.646218 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.865, "volume": 48606, "typical_volume": 274362.5, "trend": 46.177553, "fair_value": 40.273719, "relative_strength": -2.767261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.410071, "energy": 75.831757, "activity_lines": [ 47.820653, 47.702415, 47.249375, 46.761698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.8, "volume": 61666, "typical_volume": 216054.35, "trend": 46.270553, "fair_value": 40.361155, "relative_strength": -2.230957, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.123612, "energy": 72.250092, "activity_lines": [ 47.835547, 47.735385, 47.360749, 46.866372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.07, "volume": 49970, "typical_volume": 186605.7, "trend": 46.373887, "fair_value": 40.452309, "relative_strength": -2.610592, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.976424, "energy": 71.395964, "activity_lines": [ 47.935107, 47.808902, 47.485455, 46.982466 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.615, "volume": 75551, "typical_volume": 160785.65, "trend": 46.489053, "fair_value": 40.5467, "relative_strength": -4.700532, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.297914, "energy": 73.634355, "activity_lines": [ 48.170333, 47.9706, 47.646662, 47.127054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }