{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f37ad34-7bb8-4e48-9bb5-40339542212e", "symbol": "2504", "name": "Goldsun Building Materials Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.361, "architecture_energy": 70.391, "architecture_maturity": 30.319, "architecture_confidence": 85.103, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.39, "rotation_up": 10.83, "upward_expansion": 14.68, "deceleration": 38.18, "rotation_down": 76.82, "downward_expansion": 92.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.936667, 31.540905, 32.116654, 32.556328 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 30.450001, "trend_reference": 33.061568, "distance_from_trend": -0.078991, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.315674, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.11265, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.528089, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.068104, "excess_performance": -0.509476, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078991, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01622, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.11265, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05951, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.355281, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034813, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.068104, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.313, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7646028, "relative_activity": 0.521346, "balance": 0.313, "dry_up": 0.765757, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044627, "annualized_volatility": 0.151356, "from_high_reference": -0.181976, "from_low_reference": 0.00995 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.061568, "fair_value_reference": 34.315674, "structural_low": 30.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.02038, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.005008, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.134703, "worst_return": -0.047233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022629, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.030471, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.172113, "worst_return": -0.052395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.103448, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.109753, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.708661, "worst_return": -0.085714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"relative_strength": -32.569443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.671574, "energy": 60.356971, "activity_lines": [ 32.013333, 32.516179, 32.718446, 33.047909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.200001, "volume": 11108470, "typical_volume": 14706528.4, "trend": 33.346899, "fair_value": 34.211934, "relative_strength": -31.842876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.538674, "energy": 66.737153, "activity_lines": [ 31.673334, 32.243828, 32.536417, 32.901436 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.75, "volume": 17412071, "typical_volume": 14969985.2, "trend": 33.202272, "fair_value": 34.269154, "relative_strength": -33.57918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.78154, "energy": 69.177875, "activity_lines": [ 31.29, 31.9072, 32.329607, 32.733894 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 30.450001, "volume": 7646028, "typical_volume": 14665938.5, "trend": 33.061568, "fair_value": 34.315674, "relative_strength": -35.528089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.360697, "energy": 70.390602, "activity_lines": [ 30.936667, 31.540905, 32.116654, 32.556328 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }