{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f38dad2-cb7b-4bee-86f1-6c24eb268c4f", "symbol": "V03", "name": "Venture Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.244, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.485, "architecture_energy": 23.174, "architecture_maturity": 57.705, "architecture_confidence": 75.205, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.53, "rotation_up": 20.85, "upward_expansion": 43.84, "deceleration": 83.66, "rotation_down": 43.72, "downward_expansion": 35.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.504667, 16.681091, 16.88394, 16.635371 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.190001, "trend_reference": 16.343612, "distance_from_trend": 0.051787, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.916245, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.330882, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.465617, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.089058, "excess_performance": -0.065777, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051787, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050334, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.330882, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123088, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054656, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260486, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089058, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.681141, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5722366, "relative_activity": 1.587482, "balance": 0.681141, "dry_up": 1.235089, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040005, "annualized_volatility": 0.277931, "from_high_reference": -0.0832, "from_low_reference": 0.391861 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.343612, "fair_value_reference": 12.916245, "structural_low": 14.279632, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.026642, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.021811, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.177394, "worst_return": -0.096015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.038345, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000336, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144963, "worst_return": -0.106558, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.094597, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.108782, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.075472, "worst_return": -0.264665, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.057374, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02907, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063004, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.076113, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069468, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 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-8.571413, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.551218, "energy": 17.676771, "activity_lines": [ 16.707333, 17.060545, 16.91147, 16.591872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.200001, "volume": 3271238, "typical_volume": 3531703.25, "trend": 16.237153, "fair_value": 12.857675, "relative_strength": -9.141619, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.148156, "energy": 17.242073, "activity_lines": [ 16.485333, 16.858182, 16.88266, 16.592602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.99, "volume": 4914900, "typical_volume": 3577293.25, "trend": 16.279928, "fair_value": 12.882384, "relative_strength": -10.92751, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.378195, "energy": 30.713016, "activity_lines": [ 16.258, 16.643818, 16.827941, 16.576657 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.190001, "volume": 5722366, "typical_volume": 3604681.55, "trend": 16.343612, "fair_value": 12.916245, "relative_strength": -5.465617, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.484973, "energy": 23.17444, "activity_lines": [ 16.504667, 16.681091, 16.88394, 16.635371 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }