{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f3c969a-e990-4922-a7e8-49997bd74eb1", "symbol": "INCO", "name": "COLUMBIA ETF TR II COLUMBIA INDIA CONSUMER ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 63.12, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 50.079, "architecture_energy": 55.507, "architecture_maturity": 16.276, "architecture_confidence": 50.804, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.8, "rotation_up": 62.57, "upward_expansion": 55.82, "deceleration": 28.21, "rotation_down": 21.38, "downward_expansion": 21.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.0988, 60.395175, 59.661149, 59.45367 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 62.96, "trend_reference": 59.765317, "distance_from_trend": 0.053454, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 62.016838, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015208, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.831412, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.012547, "excess_performance": -0.138172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053454, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025921, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.015208, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023501, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098314, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052498, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012547, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.139131, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63062, "relative_activity": 0.373985, "balance": 1.139131, "dry_up": 0.805533, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027374, "annualized_volatility": 0.222258, "from_high_reference": -0.07439, "from_low_reference": 0.183681 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.765317, "fair_value_reference": 62.016838, "structural_low": 53.19, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019414, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032704, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.03326, "worst_return": 0.007225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.038019, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.003455, "worst_return": -0.115611, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.012999, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.056828, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.026094, "worst_return": -0.100621, "sufficient": false 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217664.4, "trend": 60.08048, "fair_value": 61.775809, "relative_strength": -13.434208, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.692056, "energy": 15.409686, "activity_lines": [ 59.582693, 59.149655, 58.849809, 59.191935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.36, "volume": 267395, "typical_volume": 208354.35, "trend": 59.922317, "fair_value": 61.839466, "relative_strength": -11.767995, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.297907, "energy": 11.500391, "activity_lines": [ 59.464333, 59.253676, 58.942335, 59.145452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.54, "volume": 145273, "typical_volume": 181814.8, "trend": 59.800317, "fair_value": 61.922073, "relative_strength": -9.120153, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.813275, "energy": 26.730543, "activity_lines": [ 60.104233, 59.729335, 59.246385, 59.249819 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.96, "volume": 63062, "typical_volume": 168621.85, "trend": 59.765317, "fair_value": 62.016838, "relative_strength": -9.831412, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.079312, "energy": 55.506633, "activity_lines": [ 61.0988, 60.395175, 59.661149, 59.45367 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }