{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f3d4b24-5bd4-492a-940b-ad0cf582a11f", "symbol": "FORG", "name": "Forgent plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.441, "architecture_energy": 60.215, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.917, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.62, "rotation_up": 26.27, "upward_expansion": 8.61, "deceleration": 59.98, "rotation_down": 57.91, "downward_expansion": 81.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.000133, 0.000147, 0.000156, 0.000198 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.0001, "trend_reference": 0.000294, "distance_from_trend": -0.660249, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.016384, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.993896, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -93.312119, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.811321, "excess_performance": -0.862556, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.660249, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.526795, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.993896, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001268, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.933121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017434, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.811321, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.302087, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3061620794, "relative_activity": 2.602415, "balance": 0.302087, "dry_up": 1.95823, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.407692, "annualized_volatility": 0.895732, "from_high_reference": -0.983333, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.000294, "fair_value_reference": 0.016384, "structural_low": 0.0001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 58, "median_return": -0.088761, "positive_rate": 0.293103, "directional_follow_through": 0.689655, "median_excess_return": -0.091529, "regime_survival": 0.948276, "best_return": 0.266667, "worst_return": -0.577143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.334667, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.3683, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.376344, "worst_return": -0.694444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.538462, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.529796, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.182796, "worst_return": -0.882857, "sufficient": true 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.193354, "energy": 51.525272, "activity_lines": [ 0.000165, 0.000165, 0.000175, 0.000235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00016, "volume": 1416532318, "typical_volume": 928700012.7, "trend": 0.000324, "fair_value": 0.01869, "relative_strength": -90.719254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.425826, "energy": 49.538992, "activity_lines": [ 0.000163, 0.000164, 0.00017, 0.000224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00013, "volume": 3014327119, "typical_volume": 1043209760.3, "trend": 0.000308, "fair_value": 0.017537, "relative_strength": -91.979875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.428333, "energy": 54.870113, "activity_lines": [ 0.000153, 0.000158, 0.000164, 0.000211 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0001, "volume": 3061620794, "typical_volume": 1176453534.2, "trend": 0.000294, "fair_value": 0.016384, "relative_strength": -93.312119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.440504, "energy": 60.2147, "activity_lines": [ 0.000133, 0.000147, 0.000156, 0.000198 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }