{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f4f56d4-c256-4bd2-ab50-88d168a72a2d", "symbol": "FYX", "name": "FIRST TRUST SMALL CAP CORE ALPHADEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.724, "architecture_energy": 59.175, "architecture_maturity": 63.395, "architecture_confidence": 79.216, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.86, "rotation_up": 56.59, "upward_expansion": 82.8, "deceleration": 65.86, "rotation_down": 25.84, "downward_expansion": 9.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 142.868153, 142.029927, 138.531407, 134.717902 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 145.0204, "trend_reference": 130.10417, "distance_from_trend": 0.114648, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 101.235823, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.432501, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.818376, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.165279, "excess_performance": -0.022175, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.114648, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077781, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.432501, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046205, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048184, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043067, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.165279, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.180927, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 202906, "relative_activity": 1.288852, "balance": 1.180927, "dry_up": 0.943324, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032367, "annualized_volatility": 0.156303, "from_high_reference": -0.014673, "from_low_reference": 0.468965 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 130.10417, "fair_value_reference": 101.235823, "structural_low": 114.784982, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.006748, "positive_rate": 0.62069, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.014122, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.082478, "worst_return": -0.077211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.007648, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076333, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.170594, "worst_return": -0.134113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.043917, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050226, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.170672, "worst_return": -0.117019, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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66.633829, "energy": 80.418145, "activity_lines": [ 141.276802, 138.59548, 134.260029, 130.885497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 142.7391, "volume": 109921, "typical_volume": 157229.4, "trend": 127.436653, "fair_value": 100.11922, "relative_strength": 8.247618, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.880023, "energy": 81.456565, "activity_lines": [ 141.966491, 139.740661, 135.484021, 131.93295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 141.3152, "volume": 104782, "typical_volume": 153945.15, "trend": 128.319746, "fair_value": 100.479409, "relative_strength": 8.593009, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.245995, "energy": 60.618761, "activity_lines": [ 141.905653, 140.460164, 136.476634, 132.82834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 141.838, "volume": 176427, "typical_volume": 158281.25, "trend": 129.250448, "fair_value": 100.845089, "relative_strength": 8.040101, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.000013, "energy": 55.776702, "activity_lines": [ 141.819387, 141.041006, 137.413419, 133.700486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 145.0204, "volume": 202906, "typical_volume": 157431.55, "trend": 130.10417, "fair_value": 101.235823, "relative_strength": 4.818376, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.723586, "energy": 59.175182, "activity_lines": [ 142.868153, 142.029927, 138.531407, 134.717902 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }