{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f5101ea-4a7a-4a6a-b501-e0e56ed3ab45", "symbol": "603028", "name": "Jiangsu Safety Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.018, "architecture_energy": 58.361, "architecture_maturity": 33.471, "architecture_confidence": 91.723, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 19.01, "upward_expansion": 9.82, "deceleration": 52.9, "rotation_down": 62.69, "downward_expansion": 83.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.411333, 6.583818, 7.289762, 7.776108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.8, "trend_reference": 8.412, "distance_from_trend": -0.191631, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.027534, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.152915, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.317972, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.305414, "excess_performance": -0.26221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.191631, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049527, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.152915, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.302547, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.239596, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.305414, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.174599, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18981080, "relative_activity": 0.770898, "balance": 0.174599, "dry_up": 0.881551, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111425, "annualized_volatility": 0.425363, "from_high_reference": -0.365079, "from_low_reference": 0.229656 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.412, "fair_value_reference": 8.027534, "structural_low": 5.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.021328, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.024366, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.333955, "worst_return": -0.205435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.081802, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.022504, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.647971, "worst_return": -0.269744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.070172, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.04705, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.13447, "worst_return": -0.455252, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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7.684, 8.172857, 8.498473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.59, "volume": 24498100, "typical_volume": 26598035.2, "trend": 8.667667, "fair_value": 8.163333, "relative_strength": -22.444631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.719292, "energy": 85.909932, "activity_lines": [ 6.873333, 7.398909, 7.981714, 8.36157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.22, "volume": 23556832, "typical_volume": 26106368.75, "trend": 8.623333, "fair_value": 8.127882, "relative_strength": -21.959534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.627094, "energy": 86.877331, "activity_lines": [ 6.604667, 7.084545, 7.771048, 8.203656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.9, "volume": 25885930, "typical_volume": 25173079.85, "trend": 8.567667, "fair_value": 8.092419, "relative_strength": -26.560229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.283245, "energy": 84.491046, "activity_lines": [ 6.313333, 6.774, 7.550476, 8.027957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.36, "volume": 18398530, "typical_volume": 24853605.65, "trend": 8.496, "fair_value": 8.057228, "relative_strength": -20.812042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.43189, "energy": 69.8365, "activity_lines": [ 6.278667, 6.612364, 7.392048, 7.885527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.8, "volume": 18981080, "typical_volume": 24622053.65, "trend": 8.412, "fair_value": 8.027534, "relative_strength": -17.317972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.018082, "energy": 58.360875, "activity_lines": [ 6.411333, 6.583818, 7.289762, 7.776108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }