{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f519d70-751c-47d9-97c7-64b980ebcc4c", "symbol": "9599", "name": "Taqat Mineral Trading Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.3, "architecture_energy": 56.426, "architecture_maturity": 73.325, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.6, "rotation_up": 26.29, "upward_expansion": 8.89, "deceleration": 54.88, "rotation_down": 54.82, "downward_expansion": 82.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.504667, 8.705636, 9.335333, 10.099269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.13, "trend_reference": 11.113, "distance_from_trend": -0.268424, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.995574, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.32225, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.473379, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.373169, "excess_performance": -0.341339, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.268424, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112853, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.32225, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276856, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.314734, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254466, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.373169, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.216768, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16438, "relative_activity": 0.24947, "balance": 0.216768, "dry_up": 0.43966, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120352, "annualized_volatility": 0.455491, "from_high_reference": -0.470358, "from_low_reference": 0.061358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.113, "fair_value_reference": 11.995574, "structural_low": 7.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055132, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.036334, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.03202, "worst_return": -0.146735, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.302135, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.254993, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.302135, "worst_return": -0.302135, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054764, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138462, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024531, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058597, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.332512, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-03-29", "close": 17.200001, "volume": 201666, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-04-05", "close": 17.200001, "volume": 138444, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-04-19", "close": 17.1, "volume": 83340, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.412186, "energy": 60.491526, "activity_lines": [ 8.946667, 9.171273, 10.150333, 10.893892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.38, "volume": 14290, "typical_volume": 61262.15, "trend": 11.700333, "fair_value": 12.082101, "relative_strength": -29.50341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.009969, "energy": 60.857056, "activity_lines": [ 8.731333, 8.968364, 9.904143, 10.667806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.58, "volume": 71947, "typical_volume": 64626.15, "trend": 11.498, "fair_value": 12.052917, "relative_strength": -28.068847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.868105, "energy": 57.156368, "activity_lines": [ 8.64, 8.863818, 9.697429, 10.466495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.98, "volume": 13205, "typical_volume": 65157.4, "trend": 11.304, "fair_value": 12.027521, "relative_strength": -22.904646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.33269, "energy": 53.482898, "activity_lines": [ 8.716667, 8.863273, 9.549667, 10.304043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.13, "volume": 16438, "typical_volume": 65891.8, "trend": 11.113, "fair_value": 11.995574, "relative_strength": -31.473379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.299685, "energy": 56.426493, "activity_lines": [ 8.504667, 8.705636, 9.335333, 10.099269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }