{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f54cffe-6217-4487-bd86-fc686caeda26", "symbol": "DU4", "name": "Mermaid Maritime Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.543, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.464, "architecture_energy": 23.264, "architecture_maturity": 20.857, "architecture_confidence": 58.932, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.38, "rotation_up": 47.45, "upward_expansion": 66.89, "deceleration": 54.16, "rotation_down": 17.89, "downward_expansion": 10.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1054, 0.103673, 0.104759, 0.102255 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.104, "trend_reference": 0.098837, "distance_from_trend": 0.052234, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.091362, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.138331, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.841812, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.159679, "excess_performance": 0.004844, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052234, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044146, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.138331, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237652, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078418, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.3057, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.159679, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.908359, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1851500, "relative_activity": 0.861279, "balance": 0.908359, "dry_up": 1.070075, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087278, "annualized_volatility": 0.553378, "from_high_reference": -0.154472, "from_low_reference": 0.262304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.098837, "fair_value_reference": 0.091362, "structural_low": 0.083118, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.004795, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.338248, "worst_return": -0.193332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.073539, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.058209, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.350002, "worst_return": -0.073332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.161782, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.046689, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.581408, "worst_return": -0.10666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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0.096792, "fair_value": 0.090366, "relative_strength": -3.979558, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.038651, "energy": 21.024207, "activity_lines": [ 0.1004, 0.103382, 0.102897, 0.100159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.104, "volume": 3754600, "typical_volume": 5100420.0, "trend": 0.097269, "fair_value": 0.090672, "relative_strength": -5.309037, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.043756, "energy": 15.013083, "activity_lines": [ 0.101533, 0.102782, 0.1033, 0.100624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.112, "volume": 2633000, "typical_volume": 3406420.0, "trend": 0.098062, "fair_value": 0.090965, "relative_strength": 0.715701, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.758176, "energy": 23.315421, "activity_lines": [ 0.105133, 0.103927, 0.104401, 0.101574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.103, "volume": 962300, "typical_volume": 2491670.0, "trend": 0.098384, "fair_value": 0.091149, "relative_strength": -7.792145, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.427915, "energy": 25.309425, "activity_lines": [ 0.105333, 0.103582, 0.104562, 0.101893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.104, "volume": 1851500, "typical_volume": 2149710.0, "trend": 0.098837, "fair_value": 0.091362, "relative_strength": -7.841812, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.464286, "energy": 23.264478, "activity_lines": [ 0.1054, 0.103673, 0.104759, 0.102255 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }