{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f551751-431f-4a78-b0e9-924464ac4176", "symbol": "UTDI", "name": "United Internet AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.739, "architecture_energy": 48.187, "architecture_maturity": 36.13, "architecture_confidence": 87.631, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.15, "rotation_up": 22.63, "upward_expansion": 7.3, "deceleration": 57.37, "rotation_down": 54.42, "downward_expansion": 80.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.658667, 23.837091, 24.722507, 25.292088 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.74, "trend_reference": 25.993629, "distance_from_trend": -0.086699, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.772487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090367, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.0879, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.131432, "excess_performance": -0.305679, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086699, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017518, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.090367, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147508, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.260879, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105609, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131432, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 33.94375, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3060, "relative_activity": 4.047084, "balance": 33.94375, "dry_up": 1.251157, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051414, "annualized_volatility": 0.250652, "from_high_reference": -0.191774, "from_low_reference": 0.06362 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.993629, "fair_value_reference": 21.772487, "structural_low": 22.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.01969, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.015044, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.227857, "worst_return": -0.137277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.029288, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053233, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.593651, "worst_return": -0.264059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.167734, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.075554, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.588044, "worst_return": -0.360286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.16901, "energy": 77.723617, "activity_lines": [ 23.769333, 24.497043, 25.3358, 25.814624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.639999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 725.0, "trend": 26.316384, "fair_value": 21.668793, "relative_strength": -25.26275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.449079, "energy": 75.808881, "activity_lines": [ 23.738666, 24.237818, 25.118804, 25.636165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.42, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 656.2, "trend": 26.176816, "fair_value": 21.720106, "relative_strength": -25.445502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.549857, "energy": 57.426321, "activity_lines": [ 23.632, 23.982182, 24.899559, 25.449302 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.74, "volume": 3060, "typical_volume": 756.1, "trend": 25.993629, "fair_value": 21.772487, "relative_strength": -26.0879, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.739209, "energy": 48.186831, "activity_lines": [ 23.658667, 23.837091, 24.722507, 25.292088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }