{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f5784e4-569e-489f-b8f3-79b811c1c10c", "symbol": "TUB", "name": "Tubacex, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 74.627, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.879, "architecture_energy": 27.324, "architecture_maturity": 31.695, "architecture_confidence": 64.221, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.44, "rotation_up": 17.01, "upward_expansion": 17.25, "deceleration": 69.71, "rotation_down": 63.45, "downward_expansion": 42.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.075667, 3.165186, 3.126728, 3.116407 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.01, "trend_reference": 3.150438, "distance_from_trend": -0.044577, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.220013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.065221, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.482528, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.131313, "excess_performance": -0.255744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044577, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018075, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.065221, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054087, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224825, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065798, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131313, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.923233, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 849136, "relative_activity": 0.577493, "balance": 1.923233, "dry_up": 0.841589, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055565, "annualized_volatility": 0.338277, "from_high_reference": -0.214099, "from_low_reference": 0.109846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.150438, "fair_value_reference": 3.220013, "structural_low": 2.712087, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.006173, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.008737, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.214539, "worst_return": -0.145833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013046, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088752, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.184397, "worst_return": -0.175599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.118404, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.059911, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.570431, "worst_return": -0.215818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.340231, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.293391, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.717263, "worst_return": 0.284899, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044669, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023148, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02924, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017595, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.219248, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101467, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017016, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057641, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062411, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002954, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104499, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.131624, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057489, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01634, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.58822, "volume": 516335, "typical_volume": 776535.1, "trend": 2.357558, "fair_value": 1.701341, "relative_strength": 14.352514, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"fair_value": 3.211585, "relative_strength": -18.955026, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.799426, "energy": 23.475903, "activity_lines": [ 3.260667, 3.235536, 3.130011, 3.13932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.115, "volume": 1198131, "typical_volume": 1540830.1, "trend": 3.182438, "fair_value": 3.214491, "relative_strength": -18.978462, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.242179, "energy": 10.059688, "activity_lines": [ 3.202667, 3.225882, 3.134306, 3.134593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.06, "volume": 1083728, "typical_volume": 1515242.7, "trend": 3.169438, "fair_value": 3.217338, "relative_strength": -20.403287, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.310189, "energy": 15.55186, "activity_lines": [ 3.139333, 3.201676, 3.133219, 3.126693 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.01, "volume": 849136, "typical_volume": 1470384.2, "trend": 3.150438, "fair_value": 3.220013, "relative_strength": -22.482528, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.879258, "energy": 27.323858, "activity_lines": [ 3.075667, 3.165186, 3.126728, 3.116407 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }