{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f5c0009-267f-41c6-8f55-dcefefcd718a", "symbol": "601137", "name": "Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.681, "architecture_energy": 68.582, "architecture_maturity": 13.117, "architecture_confidence": 76.375, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.02, "rotation_up": 8.16, "upward_expansion": 14.0, "deceleration": 38.15, "rotation_down": 74.04, "downward_expansion": 87.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.305333, 19.148545, 20.084991, 20.107596 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.0, "trend_reference": 20.315288, "distance_from_trend": -0.113968, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.957243, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.002381, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.92595, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.085308, "excess_performance": -0.042104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113968, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008851, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.002381, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082703, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15926, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009634, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085308, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.137306, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68000947, "relative_activity": 0.77968, "balance": 1.137306, "dry_up": 0.977901, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146992, "annualized_volatility": 0.614332, "from_high_reference": -0.367319, "from_low_reference": 0.137081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.315288, "fair_value_reference": 17.957243, "structural_low": 15.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.003648, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005761, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.138737, "worst_return": -0.244934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034748, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.00716, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.154893, "worst_return": -0.084038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.127533, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.133636, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.380946, "worst_return": -0.075826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.199465, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084038, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045859, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.19083, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028254, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.168012, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"close": 16.459999, "volume": 90647908, "typical_volume": 90351936.0, "trend": 20.595278, "fair_value": 17.918942, "relative_strength": -20.955711, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.486915, "energy": 41.418588, "activity_lines": [ 18.452666, 20.555324, 20.638251, 20.516719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.68, "volume": 74742242, "typical_volume": 88411988.2, "trend": 20.426131, "fair_value": 17.932894, "relative_strength": -20.040142, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.781707, "energy": 52.706442, "activity_lines": [ 17.447333, 19.690702, 20.290626, 20.26412 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.0, "volume": 68000947, "typical_volume": 87216429.55, "trend": 20.315288, "fair_value": 17.957243, "relative_strength": -15.92595, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.680531, "energy": 68.58183, "activity_lines": [ 17.305333, 19.148545, 20.084991, 20.107596 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }